Back to the winter of 2023, a crisp voice came, I am a long-term bearish person, don't tell me anything else. Why do you want to be bearish? Actually, I don't know, and I haven't figured it out until now. It may be related to a person's personality and cognition.
Psychologically speaking, people with the number 1 are more suitable for long-term investment, not short-term investment. People with the number 2 are sophisticated egoists, so they only understand the world from a personal perspective. People with the number 3 like to play all-in because emotions can influence them. People with the number 4 are stubborn and not good at changing themselves. They are good believers, comparable to people with the number 1. People with the number 5 are more casual and may be a swing trader. People with the number 6 are service-oriented and may be suitable to be a trader. People with the number 7 are mysterious and naturally taciturn. They like to study everything. As long as they are willing to study, they may become a trading genius. People with the number 8 have a more flexible business mind, so they are also a speculative dog. People with the number 9 are personally tragic, so they are good at seizing opportunities, but if they don't learn, they will be played by opportunities.
Having said so much, let's talk about why I am bearish in the long term? Investment is related to a person's personality. For example, Buffett emphasizes from his personal cognition that he should invest in entities and rarely participate in technology-related virtual industries. What I want to say is that this long-term bearish friend is a Type 4 person. It is difficult for them to change what they have determined, and the more opposition from the outside world, the more they will insist. What is another reason? Because of the environment, people around me have been bearish in the long term after Bitcoin reached $43,000 and Ethereum reached $2,400, but can this really make a profit?
Let's take another example. George Soros, the world's top speculator, shorted the economies of some small countries for a long time and finally made a lot of money. However, he failed repeatedly when shorting the Chinese economy, including shorting Hong Kong, because cognition determines the pocket. He underestimated China, a new economy, and finally had to end in a miserable failure. So this time, the long-term bearish view on cryptocurrencies is undoubtedly a serious lack of cognition of this new economy. It is too early to insist on the bearish idea before knowing that there are fundamentals behind it, such as ETFs, which are big benefits, have not been implemented. When I wrote this article, the price of Bitcoin was still maintained at US$43,830, and the support of US$43,000 below, that is, the green band, is still bullish.
We have to think that the risk of being bearish on a new economy is far greater than the risk of being bullish. The market is changing rapidly. With the support of long-term positive factors, it is a very dangerous thing to rashly be bearish.
On the other hand, ETH's Cancun upgrade also brought a wave of growth to the Ethereum system, and Ethereum is still fluctuating at $2,300. If 2,280 is not broken, it may continue to rise. Therefore, staying sober is a quality that an investor should have. If you judge the market based on your personal cognition, it is sometimes too arbitrary. If personal cognition can change the world, then Soros would have made a lot of money by shorting the Chinese economy. Obviously, it is impossible to make a correct judgment of the world based on one's original cognition.
I divide a person's cognition into three levels: the first is the initial acquaintance, when they know a little about a new thing, they start to make a presumptuous evaluation of it. This type is the most likely to miss opportunities. The second is critical, when they have not yet fully understood a new thing from the underlying logic. They recognize new things, but most of them stop at the surface. At this time, they are easily influenced by the outside world and lose their correct judgment. The third is flying, when they have been convinced by the underlying logic of the whole new thing and opened the door to a new world. This is the highest level of cognition and can crush all opposing voices. However, different cognition depends on personality, and personality determines cognition. Because it is mentioned at the beginning of the article that different personalities have different psychological characteristics, so cognition must be related to personality, and has nothing to do with what university you went to or what academic qualifications you have. Hongge has always believed that academic qualifications are just a door for you to knock on social relationships. It does not represent a person's high cognition or how high a person's literacy is. A person's cognition lies in experience, sensing the universe and everything in a spiritual state, discovering the world from the microcosm, learning from everyone's words, not being spoiled or irritable, and treating everything without prejudice.
Investing is the realization of cognition, and a person's cognition determines how much money the chosen project will eventually make. A person's attitude towards the market is also whether a person's cognition is flawed or not. It is more difficult to bravely admit mistakes in the capital market than to stick to oneself. In front of the market, No. 7 people may be more able to stick to their bottom line. They are like a grass, and they will fall wherever the wind blows. So be a grass in the capital market. Even if you are insignificant in the eyes of others, you still have strong vitality.
