Review: The current market situation, for example, how it went up to an extreme level in the last round, this time it is going to fall to an extreme level (the previous waves were not accompanied by adjustments, and this decline is expected to not be accompanied by too much rebound adjustment). It is a one-sided and very paranoid market situation.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum has now formed a large negative line at the weekly level (as for the large negative line, everyone knows it), and then KDJ crosses at a high level, and the decline is strong. From the monthly line, this round of decline is likely to repair the monthly K-level gap (I told you this point a long time ago, this monthly K gap will be a big "bomb"). Now the low point of Ethereum's market is around 3000. If this area can be maintained in the short term, there is still room for the market to recover. On the contrary, if 3000 is effectively broken, the market will definitely go bearish (currently it is recommended that everyone take it one step at a time). In terms of the five-day line, it is currently closed with a large negative line to repair the TD9 that was delayed in the previous round (the decline of the big cake is not too bad, but it also goes negative to repair the TD13 that stood firm in the previous round), so the current situation belongs to the technical retracement adjustment stage of the large-scale line. As for the key dividing line between bulls and bears, it depends on whether 3000 can be taken up.
From the daily level, the current KDJ, MACD and BOLL shorts continue to resonate, and the trading volume shows that the current decline belongs to the stage of equal decline (today is also in the stage of large-volume decline, now it depends on the update of tomorrow's daily line. If tomorrow's volume shrinks, then the market will accelerate the decline); in the main chart, MA5 and MA10 continue to press down, and note that the increase in the MA30 daily moving average is weakening (once MA30 is linked with the shorts, it means that the subsequent market may see a stronger "thunderstorm" at any time).
The current technical trend at the 12-hour level is not much different from that of the daily line. The current KDJ and MACD dead cross continue to fall in large volume, BOLL is open as a whole and the price drop is greater than the entire BOLL track, which shows that the short-term selling sentiment is too strong (in fact, it is an extreme market crash after malicious selling); in terms of the main chart, the three-day MA moving averages continue to be arranged in a short position, and the decline is strong. It is especially reminded that the current 12-hour line is in a stage of shrinking decline, which means that the short-term panic has not ended, and there are still a large number of chips being sold out, so the low point of this short-term decline is still difficult to predict, so it is better to be careful when catching a rebound.
Summary: I am still bearish on the current short-term market conditions. As for when the short-term rebound sentiment will appear, you can pay attention to it between 8 o'clock tonight and 12 o'clock in the morning. Special reminder: the intensity may not be very strong, because the large-scale line is now based on the market pressure is too strong. This round of Ethereum collapse is bound to touch the bull-bear dividing line near 3000. Therefore, if there is a short-term rebound, it is likely to accumulate energy and adjust the space for the subsequent decline.
The current market situation needs to be analyzed technically through the market of larger levels. The next key low support area of Ether is in the 3081-2959 area (near the MA5 and MA10 daily moving averages of the monthly line). Note that if the low support area is lost this time, the Ethereum market will enter a bear market and begin to adjust. The second low point is expected to rush to the monthly MA30 (the current price reference is around the 2450-2266 area). On the contrary, if the area near 3000 can be maintained, there is still room for pulling and detours in the subsequent market.
In short, for short-term trading, it is better to take one step at a time and seek stability.
