Review: As expected, the mainstream market saw the first support test and pullback in the early morning. From an emotional perspective, this is very obvious; the previous day's rise was too strenuous, indicating an anomaly. Powell's speech in the early morning actually just ignited the situation. However, this drop happened to hit the support area between 3595-3450. From the perspective of the five-day line, this drop does not 'quench thirst' (although it fell, the TD indicator of the five-day line has not achieved a red TD1 technical repair, which also means that this drop has not ended, and there is still downward space).
From the daily chart perspective, the KDJ and MACD death cross continue to resonate downward, and the current lower Bollinger Band shows a slight upward squeeze (the decline is constrained, indicating it has reached a support area); the main chart's MA5 and MA10 daily moving averages continue to converge and press down, but the MA30 daily moving average has not yet linked with the bearish trend. At the same time, the main chart's price and MA5 have created a slight gap, so I estimate there will be a technical rebound after testing the support during the day (if the rebound does not break the daily MA5, then the price will continue to decline in volume).
The situation at the 12-hour level is basically similar to the daily level. Currently, the KDJ and MACD death cross continue to decline in volume, and the Bollinger Bands are overall weakening, with an opening appearing on the entire track; regarding the main chart, the MA5 and MA10 daily moving averages continue to press downward, and the increase in the MA30 daily moving average has slightly weakened (now we are just waiting for MA30 to link with the bearish trend). Additionally, please note that a slight gap has also appeared between the price and MA5, so in the very short term (that is, this evening), a slight rebound sentiment is expected to emerge, but the intensity will likely not be strong.
From the 4-hour short-term perspective, the most important focus is still on the TD indicator. Currently, Ethereum has stabilized at TD9, while Bitcoin has seen TD13 appear, both indicating that a technical adjustment is needed in the short term. This aligns perfectly with the gap repairs on the daily and 12-hour charts, so I personally believe that the market will see a slight rebound (this rebound corresponds to the TD setup on the 4-hour chart and the gap repair on the 12-hour and daily charts, but the intensity is expected to be weak).
Summary: I personally expect that today's short-term market will see a slight rebound and repair sentiment (note that the intensity is expected to be weak), with the potential rebound area likely around 3800-3750. Please note that as long as this rebound cannot effectively break through the 3750-3800 area, Ethereum will continue to decline in volume, with the first key support level still around 3450-3595 (especially reminding that if the rebound intensity cannot effectively break through 3750-3800, then the subsequent pressure and pullback sentiment will be strong or even catastrophic).
For the short-term today, we will wait here, and later await the connection and update of the analysis thoughts for the early morning or tomorrow's market.