#美联储放鹰 #加密市场回调 #加密市场回调

Regarding ETFs, on December 18, the spot ETF net inflow was $275 million for $BTC , and $2.45 million for $ETH .

The Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting passed the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points with a vote of 11:1, but the statement hinted at a slower pace of rate cuts; the dot plot shows that the forecast for rate cuts next year has changed from 4 adjustments to 2; Powell stated that future considerations for rate adjustments can be more cautious, and the path depends on achieving more progress in reducing inflation. It may take another year or two to reach the inflation target. Rate hikes are unlikely next year.

This rate decision exceeded expectations for a hawkish stance, causing a huge shock in global capital markets. The US dollar index surged against the trend, gold fell sharply, the Nasdaq dropped by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 fell by 2.95%, with a clear increase in risk-averse sentiment.

Powell clearly stated that the Federal Reserve does not favor Bitcoin and does not wish to hold it as a strategic reserve. He emphasized that while Congress could modify the law to allow the Federal Reserve to hold Bitcoin, that is not the direction he hopes to see.

In an ideal scenario, BTC could rebound to around 103,000, while ETH could reach around 3,800. The current weakness of ETH has exceeded expectations; it not only adjusted with BTC but even lagged behind BTC's exchange rate. It truly missed the rise and has fallen more sharply, but due to relatively small profit-taking, the rebound momentum in the future may be greater than that of BTC.

Long-term ETH holders have shown confidence this year and are still continuously increasing their positions. Currently, about 110 million ETH are held by long-term holders.