#比特币走势观察

Regarding ETFs, the U.S. stock market will be closed on January 1st. On December 31st, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $5.32 million, while Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $35.93 million.

Venture capital firm Lightspeed released five major predictions for the Solana ecosystem in 2025, including: Elon Musk's X platform will launch a native token based on Solana, which can be used to pay for X Premium subscription fees; the market cap of Solana stablecoins will exceed $20 billion, growing fourfold from the current level; Solana ETF will be approved but may underperform compared to Ethereum ETF; Pumpfun will lose its position as the top platform for memecoin transaction fees; there will be no major outages in the Solana network in 2025. With the full launch of the Firedancer client approaching, Solana's throughput will significantly increase, but it may also introduce new risk factors.

Usual protocol experienced a large-scale USD0 sell-off today (UTC 07:00), triggered by a whale trade in the secondary market, raising doubts about the USD0 peg. USD0 briefly dropped to $0.99, then re-pegged to $1 within seconds, experiencing some basis deviation due to continuous selling, and fully re-pegged a few hours later.

In terms of market conditions, $BTC experienced a sharp rebound. After the New Year, funds that exited for various reasons will be replenished, so this short-term rebound trend may continue, with the upper resistance level around 100k. The key observation in the future market is still the rebound volume, which determines the strength of demand and its sustainability. I still do not believe Bitcoin can initiate a new upward trend; high-level fluctuations remain highly probable, and above 100k is still the profit-taking area for medium to long-term positions.

$ETH linkage, the exchange rate still needs to be tested, $SOL strengthened today, related to the replenishment of funds from the U.S. SOL has also adjusted quite thoroughly during this period, with resistance above 230.