#加密市场狂欢 #ETH再度冲击4K

Today's historical new high is very exciting on the surface, but in reality, the rise is rather weak. From the premium on Coinbase, this morning's surge directly flattened the premium, which means it wasn't driven up by real buying, but rather by contract liquidations and long positions accumulation that achieved this new high.

When funds are active, small coins won't perform poorly over the weekend, but last weekend there was clearly no profit effect, leaving only Bitcoin struggling to support itself. Bitcoin's support comes from the anticipated overflow effect as Microstrategy is added to the Nasdaq 100 on Monday, and ETFs are expected to continue inflowing. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is likely to complete its December rate cut next week (the probability is nearing 100%), so it is still possible to see another surge before a real pullback, but the height is not worth expecting.

At the same time, the lack of a widespread wealth effect in altcoins indicates that demand in the market is rapidly drying up, and liquidity is starting to tighten. Looking at the long positions in contracts, a large number of long positions have accumulated above 100,000, which is definitely fuel for shorts, so it will be very difficult to continue pushing higher in the short term, unless there is a massive buying spree when the US stock market opens tomorrow, which is a rare sight before Christmas.

As for whether small projects can rise together, we may need to pay attention to whether the big liquidity holders $XRP and $DOGE can create a new high to release liquidity in the short term, or whether $ETH can also elevate liquidity.

There is still some time until the next risk release, but we have basically entered a stage of licking blood on the knife's edge, looking for good targets, and doing short trades with stop-loss is the way to go.