Is Bitcoin approaching the market top? An analysis of the BTC cycle patterns reveals

Point avatar live, let's chat in the live room!

Since hitting a local low of $66,798, Bitcoin [BTC] has been on an upward trend, reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $103,647. The cryptocurrency has experienced a strong surge, breaking the $100,000 mark nine times within 14 days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's trading price is $101,722, up 1.59% in one day.

The current market conditions have sparked discussions among analysts. Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez cited previous cycles, speculating that the market may be nearing its peak.

What is the market sentiment?

In his analysis, Martinez hypothesizes that by utilizing previous cycles, it can be determined whether Bitcoin has already reached the market top, and if not, when the next peak might occur.

According to him, if Bitcoin follows the patterns of the 2015 and 2018 cycles, the next market peak may arrive in October 2025.

In 2018, the market peaked, ending the bull run of 2016 and 2017, with BTC reaching $19,666 in December 2017. At the beginning of 2018, BTC's price fell from $17,235 to $3,122.

There was no bull market in 2015; instead, a bear market bottom occurred, with BTC hitting a low of $195, while Bitcoin's last market high was in 2013, when it reached $1,200.

In 2011, Bitcoin experienced its first major bull run, reaching an all-time high of $29.6 in June. However, after the Mt. Gox hack, BTC's price plummeted to $2 by the end of the year.

The 2011 cycle indicates that rebounds precede significant drops, meaning the current market may have already peaked and could see a decline. Similarly, the cycles of 2015 and 2018 suggest that if BTC follows a four-year cycle, the next peak will occur in 2025.

Has BTC already reached the market peak?

While the above analysis provides a method to determine potential market tops, it is crucial to use other market indicators to identify the next potential peak.