- Policy expectations: After Trump's victory, the market expects that the United States may relax cryptocurrency regulation. He has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and plans to set up a new position in the White House specifically responsible for cryptocurrency policy. This is seen as a positive attitude towards Bitcoin, which has enhanced market confidence and attracted capital inflows.
- Macroeconomics: As global economic uncertainty increases, investors seek safe-haven assets. The scarcity and decentralization of Bitcoin make it the choice of some investors. The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, the US dollar has sufficient liquidity, and risky assets are favored, which has driven up Bitcoin prices.
- Market factors: The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs has lowered the investment threshold, increased market trading activity, attracted a large number of institutional and retail investors, and provided strong support for Bitcoin prices. In addition, Bitcoin's halving mechanism has led to a reduction in supply, further boosting its price.
Risks and challenges
- Regulatory risks: Globally, there is uncertainty in the regulatory policies of crypto assets. Adjustments to regulatory policies in some countries or regions, such as strengthening the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, are likely to cause drastic market fluctuations. In China, business activities related to virtual currencies such as Bitcoin are considered illegal financial activities.
- Market risks: Bitcoin prices fluctuate greatly, and the combination of high volatility and high leverage is one of the most prominent risk points in the crypto market. When market sentiment is high, investors use high-leverage tools to pursue high returns. Once the market reverses, risks accumulate rapidly, which can easily lead to panic and large-scale liquidation events.
- Technical risks: Crypto assets rely on blockchain technology, and the technology itself is immature and has potential vulnerabilities, such as hacker attacks or smart contract errors, which may lead to serious asset losses.