What percentage of people must lose access to their bitcoin wallets for the price of bitcoin to crash?
Answer:
In order for the price of bitcoin to significantly crash due to the loss of access to wallets, several factors need to be considered:
1. The actual impact of supply on demand.
The price of bitcoin is determined by the balance between supply and demand. Loss of access to wallets effectively reduces the available supply.
Paradoxically, the more coins become inaccessible, the more their value may increase due to scarcity, rather than decrease.
2. A key factor is liquidity, not total volume.
If coins that were already not participating in trading (held for long-term investments or lost long ago) disappear from circulation, it will hardly affect the current liquidity.
However, if the loss affects active market participants, it could reduce liquidity, which may increase volatility and create uncertainty.
3. How can a crash occur?
A price crash is possible if the loss of coins causes:
Mass panic: For example, rumors about the loss of a significant percentage of bitcoins can lead to a sell-off due to fear of further problems.
Deterioration of trust in the system: If investors start to believe that the loss of bitcoins threatens the stability or security of the ecosystem.
4. What percentage of losses is needed for a crash?
If 50% or more of all bitcoins become inaccessible, it could trigger a significant shock to the market.
However, a real crash is only possible in combination with other factors, such as mass panic or the collapse of infrastructure (exchanges, wallets).
5. Precedents.
Currently, it is estimated that about 20% of all bitcoins are lost (according to Chainalysis), but this does not cause a price crash; rather, it strengthens scarcity and long-term price growth.
Conclusion:
For the price of bitcoin to collapse due to loss of access to wallets, not only a significant percentage of inaccessible coins (50% or more) is required, but also accompanying negative events that undermine trust and liquidity in the market. Otherwise, the loss of bitcoins is more likely to stimulate price growth than to cause it to fall.