Analysis of the Latest Unemployment Rate in the United States

According to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor on December 6, 2024, the unemployment rate in the U.S. for November was 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first increase since August, with the number of unemployed reaching 7.1 million. Despite a significant rebound in non-farm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs in November compared to the previous month, the labor market overall continues to trend towards cooling.

Analysis of Future Economic Trends in the United States

- Optimistic Factors:

- Consumer Spending Support: Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity. Despite high inflation, the consumer market in the U.S. remains robust, playing a key role in supporting the economy.

- Economic Growth Expectations: Federal Reserve's Williams predicts that the U.S. GDP will reach 2.5% or higher this year, and the OECD anticipates that economic growth in the U.S. will be 2.1% in 2024, both indicating that the U.S. economy has some growth momentum.

- Rate Cut Expectations: After the release of the non-farm payroll report, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's “FedWatch” tool indicated an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Rate cut expectations are beneficial for lowering corporate financing costs and stimulating economic growth.

- Risk Factors:

- Stubborn Inflation: In October, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to September. Fitch recently raised its inflation expectations for the U.S., predicting that inflation will reach 2.8% by the end of 2025. High inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, suppressing economic growth.

- Cooling Labor Market: The unemployment rate has risen again after three months, and the “small non-farm” ADP employment data fell short of expectations. The overall labor market is trending towards cooling, which may affect consumer spending and economic growth momentum.

- Policy Uncertainty: The economic policies of the new government following Trump's administration may experience significant shifts. Future economic development may face increased instability and uncertainty, such as potential expansionary fiscal policies and significant tariff increases. While these measures may raise inflation and reduce the risk of a recession in the U.S., they also bring numerous uncertainties.

Summary in One Sentence: The unemployment rate is rising, leading to increased expectations for rate hikes, which will be reflected in the frequency and intensity of rate increases. If the economic outlook is also not optimistic, it may benefit the cryptocurrency market.