$FIL Another important reason why I think this bull market may be particularly crazy is that many AI experts currently predict that "fifth level AI" may appear in the next few years, that is, there will be AI that can help us manage assets. "Self-organizing AI", I think this will have a profound impact on our investment behavior.

At present, the main advantages of top individual investors over ordinary people are reflected in two aspects:

First, the information is poor. By reading a large amount of information and having in-depth communications with people in the industry, they can significantly improve their judgment on the market.

Second, emotion management. When the market fluctuates violently, they can remain calm and stick to their research conclusions. This calm character is an important reason for their success.

However, as higher-level AI steps in, these two advantages may quickly be evened out. Especially in terms of emotional management, AI will not be affected by emotional fluctuations in asset management. No matter how wildly the market fluctuates, AI will make decisions based on probability, thereby eliminating the room for profiting through human panic and greed. As for the "information gap", AI's advantages in self-learning and information collection capabilities almost make this point non-existent.

Some people may think that, in this case, it is better to ambush "local dog" projects or increase returns through increased leverage. But unfortunately, AI also has an absolute advantage in probability calculations. For example, through strategies such as the "Kelly formula", AI can accurately allocate a small portion of assets into high-risk and high-return projects, optimizing risks and returns to the extreme.

To sum up, if higher-level AI really comes, it will become extremely difficult to obtain "excess returns" by relying on personal learning and emotional management. Market returns will become more even, with the only difference being that individuals or institutions with more computing power may receive higher rates of return.