A newborn calf is not afraid of tigers; it dares to play contracts right away. There is an effect where, in many fields with high uncertainty, beginners tend to have better luck, like in contracts. Reality seems to be just like this: people who play contracts usually make a profit in the early stages, but inevitably lose in the long run.

1. Why are people obsessed with contracts?

Two words: fast and greedy. Contracts can amplify capital, allowing you to get rich (or poor) quickly. Watching the numbers jump on the screen is truly thrilling, and for beginners, it's very enjoyable. Greed drives many to play contracts; after making short-term profits, many tell themselves that making money is so easy, finally finding a way out in life, thinking they can rely on it for their meals. In reality, drinking is even more addictive than smoking.

2. Still believing in probability theory?

Those who think a little critically believe that contracts are merely about ups and downs, and according to probability, the chances of going up or down are the same. Based on this probability, one could potentially avoid losses. Wrong. First, it is unknown whether this rule applies to social sciences; second, its condition for validity is "sufficiently many trials." The fewer the trials, the greater the randomness. This explains why, for individuals, the number of losses in contracts tends to be high due to fewer trials. For the big players, however, the number of trials is sufficient, and when excluding the exceptional retail investors, they can naturally make money. Furthermore, the transaction fees for contracts are very high; if you operate frequently, the fees alone can wipe you out! Thus, fundamentally, this is a game destined for loss. 99 profitable trades can be completely undone by just one bad mindset leading to a liquidation!

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