The arrival of a cryptocurrency bull market can be analyzed from several key factors. These signals typically involve multiple aspects such as market sentiment, capital flow, technical trends, and the external economic environment.
1. Market Sentiment and Capital Inflow
（1）Market Sentiment Shift
Fear and Greed Index: When the market gradually shifts from a state of fear to greed, it may indicate the onset of a bull market. An index value above 50 suggests sentiment begins to lean optimistic, while close to 80 or above usually means a strong bull market atmosphere.
Mainstream Media Attention: When cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum receive frequent coverage from mainstream media, it attracts a large number of retail investors to enter the market.
（2）Accelerated Capital Inflow
Institutional Capital Inflow: When large institutions (such as Grayscale or MicroStrategy) increase their holdings of Bitcoin or Ethereum, it indicates a positive long-term outlook for cryptocurrency assets.
Surge in New User Registrations: An increase in the number of new users on exchanges and active addresses is a signal of retail capital entering the market.
2. Technical Analysis
（1）Price Trends
Sustained Upward Trend: The price of mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking through key resistance levels and continuing to rise is usually an important signal for the start of a bull market.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows: The price forming a pattern of 'higher highs and higher lows' indicates a strong upward trend.
（2）Increase in Trading Volume
Significant increases in trading volume alongside rising prices indicate a large influx of capital into the market, validating the upward trend's effectiveness.
（3）Golden Cross of Moving Averages
Bitcoin's 50-day moving average breaking above the 200-day moving average ('Golden Cross') is an important technical signal historically associated with bull markets.
3. On-Chain Data
（1）Analysis of Holding Addresses
Increase in Long-term Holding Addresses: A growing number of addresses holding assets for over a year indicates that investors are optimistic about future market performance and prefer long-term holding.
（2）Increase in Active Addresses
A significant rise in the number of active addresses on the blockchain indicates an increase in market trading activity.
（3）Miner Behavior
Reduction in Miner Sell-Off: A decrease in Bitcoin transferred out of miner wallets suggests that they are bullish on future prices.
4. External Economic and Policy Environment
（1）Macroeconomic Environment
Loose Monetary Policy: When the global economy is in a low-interest-rate or quantitative easing environment, investors are more inclined to invest in high-return assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Rising Inflation Expectations: Bitcoin is viewed as 'digital gold'; when inflation concerns rise, capital may flow into Bitcoin as a hedge.
（2）Policy Support
If a country introduces friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, such as promoting institutional adoption or allowing ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) to be listed, it may stimulate a bull market.
5. Historical Cycles and Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin Halving Effect: A bull market usually arrives about 6-12 months after each halving. Historical data shows that halving reduces miner rewards, and the change in supply and demand dynamics may drive prices up.
Four-Year Cycle: Observing Bitcoin's historical trends, bull markets often occur within one to two years following a halving.
6. Observing Market Hotspots
Mainstream Coins Rising: Bull markets are typically led by Bitcoin, followed by other mainstream coins like Ethereum.
Altcoin Market Surge: When altcoins (especially high-risk projects) experience a massive rise, it usually indicates that the bull market is entering its later stages.
Emerging Sectors Rising: Explosive growth in sectors like DeFi, NFTs, and Layer 2 is an important indicator of capital inflow.
7. Risk Warning: Pseudo Bull Market Traps
False Breakouts: There may be temporary price breakouts when the market has not fully entered a bull market, but subsequent lack of capital support can lead to a decline.
Excessive Leverage: If high-leverage trading is active in the market, increased volatility may lead to drastic market adjustments.
Conclusion
Determining a bull market requires analyzing multiple signals, including market sentiment, technical indicators, on-chain data, and the macroeconomic environment. Typical signs of a bull market include:
Bitcoin price breaking through historical highs, accompanied by increased trading volume.
Rapid growth in overall market capitalization of mainstream and altcoins.
Surge in new users and increased holdings by institutional investors.
Favorable macroeconomic policies promoting risk-averse demand.
While a bull market may bring substantial returns, investors should remain cautious, manage their funds well, and avoid taking on excessive risks due to blind optimism.
