Historically, we believe that the allocation value of BTC as an alternative asset is largely supported by the shadow of inflation. The 5-year and 10-year breakeven rates commonly referenced in the secondary market are used as indicators of inflation expectations. BTC’s bull market and Bear markets always correspond to rising and falling inflation expectations.

If the Fed policy rate peaks, will it cause inflation expectations to also cool down (in the past two weeks, it has dropped by 20bp in 5yr and 10bp in 10yr). If Godiloc does not continue thereafter, then the demand for alternative allocations may also weaken.

Another good scenario is that the Fed policy interest rate has peaked, but the actual economic development continues to improve, leading to a sharp rise in inflation expectations. However, at least the current expectations for economic cooling in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year are still very strong (excluding the third quarter subsidy) Inventory and one-time consumption support). So it's somewhat contradictory to bet that falling interest rates coincide with rising alternative assets.