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Penguins, Trump Tariffs and The Dollar Not even penguins were spared from Donald Trump's tariffs, with the remote Heard Islands in Oceania, home only to penguins, being included in the US tariff list. The move aimed to prevent the islands from becoming a free trade zone and a hub for exports evading tariffs. Meanwhile, Colombia initially faced uncertainty due to Trump's tariff threats but is expected to benefit significantly from its proximity to the US and relatively low tariffs compared to other nations, such as Vietnam, which faces a 56% tariff rate. This could boost Colombia's competitiveness starting in 2026. Several factors contribute to Colombia's economic resilience: - Prudent management by the Central Bank*: Effective handling of foreign currency reserves and gold sales. - Tourism sector growth*: Increased tourism activity supports the local economy. - High oil prices*: Colombia benefits from the current high oil prices. - Record remittances*: Historically high levels of remittances from abroad. These factors have strengthened the Colombian peso against the US dollar, with an expected exchange rate of around 4,300 pesos per dollar in 2025
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INTEREST RATES FOR COLOMBIA 2025 In Colombia, the monetary policy interest rate remains at 9.5% since December. However, it is still above the 3% target set by the Bank of the Republic. It is expected that inflation will continue to decrease gradually towards the target over the next two years. Colombia's economic activity has also shown signs of recovery, with growth of 1.8% in 2024. It is expected that this growth will accelerate in 2025 and 2026, reaching a level close to its productive capacity in 2026. Regarding interest rates for loans, these vary depending on the type of loan. Consumer and ordinary loans have an effective annual interest rate of 17.53%, while large productive loans have an effective annual interest rate of 27.15% In summary, the monetary policy interest rate in Colombia remains at 9.5% to support economic recovery and control inflation. Inflation has decreased significantly, but is still above the 3% target. Economic activity has shown signs of recovery and is expected to continue growing in the coming years.
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Colombian Peso: The Likely Winner In a surprise turn of events, the Colombian peso (COP) has emerged as a top performer in the foreign exchange market. Despite being a traditionally volatile currency, the COP has shown remarkable resilience and strength in recent weeks. According to market analysts, the COP's winning streak can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a surge in oil prices, a stable political environment, and a robust economic growth outlook. As a result, investors have been flocking to the COP, driving up its value against major currencies such as the US dollar. My prediction for the the dollar in March is 4.070 pesos and the Euro 4.235 pesos Looking ahead, experts predict that the COP will continue to win for the next few weeks. With oil prices expected to remain high and the Colombian economy showing signs of continued growth, the COP is likely to remain a top performer in the foreign exchange market. As such, investors and traders would do well to keep a close eye on the COP's movements in the coming weeks.
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DIPLOMATIC CRISIS WILL INCREASE DOLLAR IN COLOMBIA The tariffs from President Trump are expected to lead to a sharp devaluation of the Colombian peso back to 4.400 pesos in the next few days, making imports more expensive and potentially triggering higher inflation. This, in turn, will cause the dollar to jump in value against the peso. In fact, the Colombian peso has already been the most devalued emerging market currency over the past month, with a devaluation of over 5% The impact of the tariffs will be felt across various sectors of the Colombian economy, including manufacturing, agriculture, and services. The Colombian government will need to take swift action to mitigate the effects of the tariffs and prevent a sharp decline in economic growth.
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the price is falling tremendously, looks like a Rugpull
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