On November 5, as U.S. voters began to cast their ballots, a wave of large bets in the final stages of the 2024 presidential race pushed the total open interest (OI)* on Polymarket to a record $463 million, marking a significant milestone on Election Day.
Data from Dune, reflecting the total value of positions on the blockchain prediction platform, shows a 40% increase in the past week, from $329 million to $463 million. Notably, most of the activity on Polymarket revolves around the election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Polymarket OI | Source: Dune
As of election day, over $249 million had been wagered on the outcome of the U.S. presidential race, a 50% increase from the previous week's $163 million. However, whether Trump's 71.7% winning probability on Polymarket is accurate remains an unanswered question, as millions of ballots are still waiting to be counted.
Trump and Harris's winning probabilities | Source: Polymarket
Since its launch in 2020, Polymarket has become an important platform for predicting the outcomes of major events, particularly in elections. For the 2024 U.S. presidential election, November 5 could be noted as one of the decisive moments, as experts and analysts, including Nate Silver from Polymarket, described the results as a surprising 'coin toss.'
Shayne Coplan, the 26-year-old founder and CEO of Polymarket, describes the platform as a new medium for assessing and predicting current events. In a Twitter post, he emphasized that Polymarket's presence will continue to grow and assert its increasingly strong position on app stores like the Apple App Store.
Although Polymarket has attracted significant attention in political and investment circles, the platform's OI reflects a more interesting story. In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, OI on Polymarket steadily increased until Joe Biden took office, after which it sharply declined from $33 million to $15 million.
Stable inflow and record trading volume
According to data from DefiLlama, Polymarket only experienced four days of net outflows in the past two months, with the largest withdrawal occurring in mid-October when nearly $30 million left the platform. Despite this, the inflow of funds remained stable as users continued to flock to bet on election outcomes.
Polymarket cash flow in 2024 | Source: DefiLlama
Especially as the 2024 race enters a crucial phase, Polymarket has recorded a record trading volume, reaching nearly $240 million on election day, according to data from Dune. This trading volume surpassed the previous peak of $161 million the day before, reflecting growing interest from the user community regarding the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Daily volume of Polymarket | Source: Dune
*OI (open interest) is a measure of the total value of all outstanding futures contracts that are 'unsettled' on exchanges, and simultaneously an indicator of market appreciation as well as trader sentiment surrounding a specific asset.
