Today is November 6, 2024, I am Egg Chunyu. As I predicted in my last article, Trump has a high winning rate on the Polymarket website; polls can be misleading, but betting sites do not lie. Trump has indeed become the 47th president. As of the time I am writing this article, the Republican Party has secured 50 seats in the Senate, becoming the majority party, while the Democratic Party holds 126 seats and the Republican Party holds 171 seats in the House of Representatives, not far from the majority of 218 seats. This presidential election may even see Trump winning the presidency and both houses! The internal dynamics of the Republican Party have changed drastically since 2016; eight years ago, the party was not a unified front. Now, the Republican Party can be said to have truly transformed into Trump's party—those who oppose Trump will be ousted. What does this mean? Most proposals will pass smoothly after Trump takes office. Next, let's discuss the impact of Trump taking office.
The first thing Trump will do when he takes office is to fire the SEC chairman, which serves as a campaign slogan at the Bitcoin developers' conference as a guest, and it also aligns with the Republican Party's charter, which advocates for minimal intervention in the free market. The SEC hasn't done anything substantial in recent years; they just keep fining crypto companies. Zuckerberg of Facebook is now leaning towards the Republicans because of the SEC: he originally intended to work with many tech companies to issue tokens related to the metaverse and change the traditional financial system. However, just as he was getting started, the SEC halted his plans. If he were a CEO with any dreams and backbone, he would definitely align with the Republicans. The same goes for Musk; on the surface, Musk's son transitioned into a daughter, and he has grown to despise the Democratic Party's LGBT agenda and the so-called gender diversity. Furthermore, the Democratic Party, with its advocacy for big government, tends to interfere more in the development of businesses compared to the small government approach of the Republicans. He often complains that it takes much longer to build a new rocket at SpaceX than to get approval for a launch. Musk is clearly siding with the Republicans, and Trump will reciprocate. Various companies under Musk will see a significant reduction in the time required for administrative processes in their applications, and commercial space travel is bound to develop significantly in the next four years. Speaking of Bitcoin, Trump promises that if elected, he will make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset for the United States and ensure that the government owns 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, which is 21 million coins, and will never sell. Five percent means 1 million coins, indicating that between 2025 and 2028, the U.S. government will purchase about 200,000 Bitcoins each year. Originally, this proposal would have been hard to pass in both houses, but now both houses are almost entirely Republican, and this proposal visibly transforms from a pipe dream into reality. It's difficult to imagine how high Bitcoin will rise in 2025; there are only about 6 million active Bitcoins in the market, and the U.S. government will buy up 800,000 coins over the next four years. Once the U.S. treats Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, other countries, especially American allies, will follow suit in buying. With various countries' pension funds and institutions allocating Bitcoin, I believe that in four years, the number of active Bitcoins in the market might only be half of what it is now. At that time, if you own one Bitcoin, you will undoubtedly be among the elite. The day after tomorrow, on Friday, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting. The last non-farm payroll data released a few days ago showed an exaggerated 12,000, suggesting that the Democratic Party has given up on faking data. Therefore, if anyone still claims that there will be no interest rate cuts in November, they are clearly lying. Whether it is 25BP or 50BP is not particularly important; I still hold the view that if there is a 25BP cut in November, there will be a 50BP cut in December, and vice versa. Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve, whether raising or lowering rates, it's always been a big swing. The reason is simple: if the rate hike isn't aggressive enough, inflation won't be suppressed; if the rate cut isn't significant enough, the economy won't hold. And when Trump takes office, there’s even less to say: in order to stimulate the economy, the rate cuts next year will be even more dramatic. I can hardly imagine how high Bitcoin will rise once Trump is back in office. As a Bitcoin holder and a witness to history, I am honored to have obtained my first Bitcoin early in my life.
