Election Day attracts global attention, and currently, Trump has a significant lead in votes. Let me share a chart to illustrate the situation:
The final battleground is in Pennsylvania, the place where Trump was shot in the ear a few months ago. On Polymarket, gamblers are giving a win rate of 67.5% to 37.9%. It seems the situation is set, and the crypto market has reacted significantly; Bitcoin has violently surged in minutes, breaking historical highs and reaching unprecedented heights of 75K.
A few days ago, I mentioned in (Behind the Presidential Race: Retail Investors Controlled by Financial Consumerism) that regardless of the final outcome of the presidential race, the trend will not change. What is the trend? The trend is that inflation in the U.S. won't stop, money printing won't stop, and Bitcoin will continue to rise.
Right now, it's just a good wind at our back; everyone's emotions are being stirred up, allowing Bitcoin to break through new highs ahead of time. Should we go crazy collectively at this moment? I think we should be a bit calmer. Why?
As I said before: even if it rises from 67K to 75K, the increase is only 10%. If you only have tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands as capital, you've only made a few thousand or tens of thousands. It looks very stimulating: 'Wow, you can earn so much in just a few minutes,' and you might even think, 'If I could earn like this every time, I'd be rich!'
This is truly dreaming; even for someone like Soros, in such a game market, one must prepare thoroughly, connect with various capitals, and manage public opinion effects before making a decisive move to earn that 15-20% profit.
Even so, Soros still bears huge risks; he successfully shorted the Thai baht and the British pound, but failed with the Hong Kong dollar and gave back significant profits.
If giants are like this, how can retail investors, who can't get key information in the game market, ensure their win rate? It's merely a gamble on luck. But the fear lies in treating luck as strength, turning initial small gains into large losses.
For retail investors like us, the few opportunities to get rich come from the increase from 15K to 75K, which is the result of daring to build positions in a bear market and trading time for growth. People often say Bitcoin is too expensive and that their capital is too small, but if you didn't buy BTC, did you get a 6x return now?
Of course, it's not that this 10% increase is meaningless, but rather that within this 10% increase, joy and sorrow won't be connected.
For our members who have been accumulating coins together since 2022, this 10% increase and the breaking of the previous high is like clearing the clouds to see the sky, allowing us to strengthen our beliefs and walk further on the right path; it's a reassuring 10%.
For those who speculate, this 10% is toxic. Short-sellers are already despondent, declaring an end early; long-buyers may be like drug addicts, even if they make a small profit this time, the final outcome may be worse, especially when a heavy bet fails.
For blind investors, this 10% increase is torturous because all investment decisions are driven by emotions. At this time, they will inevitably chase high prices due to FOMO, but inside, they will be confused: it's already risen by 10%, will it fall? Will I get trapped?
The market is like this; if you can't find your position, you'll feel lost. If you go in the wrong direction, you will ultimately incur losses. Confusion and fear make it easier to touch Murphy's Law.
For instance, right at this moment, the new high of 75K represents the consensus of peak market sentiment, but is there really good news? Harris and Trump are just politicians; what they want are votes. They’re just talking without taking action yet?
Emotions will eventually calm down; when the fountain has no power, the splashes will fall.
Don't let capital and capital-controlled public opinion guide you; focus your valuable attention on the thrilling buying and holding. The more stimuli you receive, the higher your desire threshold will be, making it harder to accept the dullness and boredom of long-termism.
What is needed is the ability to see the essence behind phenomena, a high enough awareness to see through scams. Only in this way can opportunity costs be increased, and the right opportunities found at the right time.
For those who have already accumulated coins, please look forward to the upcoming magnificent market.
For those caught in FOMO, please let the bullets fly for a while, think calmly about why every time it’s high buying and low buying.
