APT, the native token of the Layer-1 Aptos blockchain, has risen 2% in the past 24 hours. However, a review of the daily chart shows that the Aptos price rally merely reflects an increase in the broader cryptocurrency market during that time.
Despite the recent increase, APT faces strong bearish pressure, which could soon erase these gains. This analysis explores the factors contributing to APT's persistent bearish outlook.
Aptos is climbing, but there's a catch
Over the past week, APT's price has decreased by 8%. This decline has pushed the coin's value below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The 20-day EMA measures the average price of an asset over the past 20 trading days, while the 50-day SMA tracks its price over the past 50 trading days.
When the price of an asset falls below the key moving averages, it indicates a shift to negative momentum. Dropping below the 20-day EMA indicates a short-term downtrend, suggesting that recent price action is weakening. Conversely, falling below the 50-day SMA is a stronger signal of a potential long-term trend reversal, implying that the upward momentum may be fading.
APT 20-day EMA/50-day SMA. Source: TradingView
The establishment of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for APT reinforces the bearish outlook. Currently, the MACD line (in blue) is positioned below both the signal line (in orange) and the zero line.
As an indicator of price trend and momentum, MACD helps identify potential buy or sell signals. This alignment indicates a strong downtrend, showing overall momentum is negative and confirming that APT is in a downtrend.
APT MACD. Source: TradingView
APT Price Prediction: Charting a path to $10.07
At the time of writing, APT is trading at $8.27, just above the support level at $7.87. If buying pressure weakens, the price may test this support level, and failing to hold could see APT drop to $5.66, where it might seek to establish a new support base.
APT Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
This bearish outlook will be invalidated if APT's bullish momentum increases significantly, driven by new demand. In this case, APT could bounce off the support level of $7.87 and aim to climb above the $10.07 level.