1. Current latest situation of the election
1. US authoritative odds market: Predict shows Harris's winning probability has reversed to lead (see below), Kalshi shows both have equal winning probabilities; many people have been misled by the odds of Polymarket, a market for non-Americans to bet;
2. Polls: Currently, among the 7 swing states, Trump is weak in Michigan and Wisconsin, while his advantage in Pennsylvania and Nevada has almost disappeared; in the other three states, Trump is leading in the polls;
3. Yesterday, a poll showed that the red state - Iowa was reversed by Harris; I analyzed several polls, and overall Trump is still leading;
The overall election situation is tense, making it impossible for the market to choose a side to bet on;
Election Day is November 5, but the election results will take 3-7 days to come out; the market will not be stable during this period;
2. The election has a decisive impact on the mid-term trend of #BTC
1. If Trump comes to power, various promised favorable policies will have a chance to be fulfilled, and the probability of US institutions betting on BTC will greatly increase;
The fundamentals of BTC as digital gold will see a significant improvement in the overall situation;
2. If Harris comes to power, the SEC is expected to continue its strict crypto policies, and BTC bulls will suffer greatly in the coming months;
Some BTC ETF investors will stop loss and exit;
The election results will affect the crypto market trends in the next 3-6 months, based on the different monetary policies and long-term inflation expectations after the two candidates are elected;
3. If Trump unexpectedly loses, where will we go from here?
1. The market in the past two weeks has priced in Trump's victory;
The current decline in winning probabilities will lead to investors benefiting from Trump exiting the market;
Currently, the on-chain BTC contract positions are at a high level, and the funding rate is not low; institutions will be back to work on Monday, and the probability of continuing to drop is high;
2. If Trump unexpectedly loses, BTC is expected to fall below 60,000 within a week; starting a decline of 5 waves;
There will be no good days in the next quarter;
The driving force behind BTC is left only to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates;
By mid-2025, BTC is expected to break 74,000, but breaking 100,000 will be difficult;
4. What should we do next?
1. Once the results come out from Pennsylvania and several other swing states, the overall situation will be basically determined, and we can operate accordingly;
2. If Trump wins as hoped:
Fully convert to spot positions; focus on increasing positions in $Doge $Sol;
US stocks: Increase positions in $TSLA, $CLSK, $MSTR, $Coin;
3. If Harris unexpectedly wins:
Reduce positions in all cryptocurrencies, keeping spot positions below 30%;
US stocks: Increase positions in $MSFU, $GOOG, $FSLR, $SOXL;
All I can say is, good luck to the 75-year-old man!
