A Marist poll released on Friday shows Harris leading former President Trump by 3 percentage points in Michigan, and by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Compared to the Marist poll in September, Harris shows slight improvement in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a slight decline in Michigan, but she maintains an advantage in all aspects.
However, all these results are within the margin of error.
These three blue wall states may be the easiest path for Harris to the White House, as they were pivotal in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Her polling support there is better than in sunbelt states, and if she secures these three states next week, she is likely to win the election.
In Harris's strongest state, Michigan, she leads Trump 51% to 48%. In September, her lead was 5 points.
However, her advantage among independents has increased from 2 points to 6 points, matching President Biden's lead among independents in Michigan in 2020.
In Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump with a support rate of 50% to Trump's 48%, an increase from both receiving 49% in September. The support rate among independents in Pennsylvania has changed significantly, with Harris leading by 15 percentage points, whereas Trump led that group by 4 points in September.
In Wisconsin, she also leads 50% to 48%, up from a 1-point lead in September. Her support rate among independents in that state has also increased from 4 points to 6 points, but remains below Biden's 12-point lead in that state in 2020.
Pollsters also found a clear gender gap in each state, although the gaps in some states are not as pronounced as in 2020.
Harris leads among female voters in Michigan by 11 percentage points, by 8 points in Pennsylvania, and by 12 points in Wisconsin, while Trump leads among male voters in Michigan by 6 percentage points, by 4 points in Pennsylvania, and by 9 points in Wisconsin. The poll shows a gender gap of 17 percentage points in Michigan, 12 points in Pennsylvania, which is significant but down from 24 points in Michigan and 22 points in Pennsylvania four years ago.
The poll also found that Democratic Senate candidates are slightly ahead in every state. In Michigan, Representative Elissa Slotkin (Michigan Democrat) leads former Representative Mike Rogers (Michigan Republican) by 6 percentage points, Senator Bob Casey (Pennsylvania Democrat) leads Republican Dave McCormick by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and Senator Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin Democrat) leads Republican Eric Hovde by 3 percentage points in Wisconsin.
This poll was conducted from October 27 to 30, surveying 1,214 likely voters in Michigan, 1,400 in Pennsylvania, and 1,330 in Wisconsin. The margin of error in Michigan is 3.5 percentage points, 3.4 points in Pennsylvania, and 3.4 points in Wisconsin.
