Here’s a recent script:
1. From now until around October 30th: Bitcoin remains stagnant or declines sharply
2. Turning point at the end of this month, October 30th: The U.S. Treasury will hold the Q4 QRA meeting, announcing an increase in net issuance of short-term bills and a reduction in net issuance of medium- to long-term bonds, causing US10Y medium- to long-term bond yields to gradually decline
3. From November 1st to November 4th/5th/6th: Bitcoin begins to rise towards Trump's victory
4. Trump announces victory: Sentiment reaches a peak, Bitcoin surges and then crashes (refer to the market performance on January 11, 2024, when the ETF began trading)
5. Following this: The oscillating market completely ends, starting a new round of major upward trend
6. The chart shows the US10Y trend after the QRA ends on October 30, 2023:
