Critical Moments after Bitcoin Halving: Can the Bull Cycle Repeat?
Bitcoin is entering a critical phase after halving, a reappearance of historical trends. Nearly six months have passed, and Bitcoin is approaching a critical node. Based on past cycles, prices may rise after a long period of consolidation.
Multiple factors help the market shift
Central bank rate cuts (such as the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in September), China's monetary easing policy, and the US presidential election have all created a favorable environment for potential market surges, similar to the price surges after the previous halving cycle.
Crypto market volatility stabilizes
At the end of the third quarter, the volatility of the crypto market was relatively stable, with Bitcoin volatility below 50%, and Ethereum and Solana also performing steadily. The volatility surge caused by the short-term unwinding of yen carry trades affected global assets.
Cryptocurrency volatility will increase
Cryptocurrency volatility is expected to rise in early Q4 2024, especially when prices fluctuate positively. Hashdex Research shows that Bitcoin investors continue to accumulate assets, with prices fluctuating between $54,000 and $69,000 in the third quarter, and the dominant position at the end of the year has strengthened, accounting for 54% of the digital asset market.
Bitcoin's road to recovery
In the third quarter of 2024, Bitcoin performed positively, rising 5.3% in July, boosted by the possible approval of the Ethereum ETF and Trump's election prospects. In August, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates, leading to widespread selling, and Bitcoin fell 10%. Market sentiment was weak in early September, but the situation reversed in mid-month, and Bitcoin ended the month with an 8% increase, with a cumulative return of 2.5% in the third quarter.
In the past week, Bitcoin appreciated by more than 8%
Currently trading at more than $67,221. Global investment giant BlackRock launched Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, pushing cryptocurrency prices to a record high. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink called Bitcoin an asset class, comparable to gold, and emphasized the key role of liquidity and transparency in market evolution.
The future of the digital asset market is promising
Fink mentioned the potential of the digital dollar and the success stories of India and Brazil, and believed that AI and data analysis will drive the expansion and acceptance of the digital asset market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a surge in inflows, with one of the strongest performances since its listing on October 14, attracting $555.9 million in new inflows on the same day.
Can Bitcoin repeat its bull cycle? The market is waiting to see.
