On October 15, 2024, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical stage, with the recent Bitcoin halving already taking place in April 2024. This was the fourth halving in the history of the cryptocurrency, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As expected, this event brought important implications for both the price and the mining market, influencing the balance between supply and demand.
This article analyzes the technical and fundamental impacts of the halving, what has happened since the event, and the main technical indicators that suggest possible future movements for Bitcoin.
1. What is the Bitcoin Halving?
The Bitcoin halving is a scheduled event that occurs approximately every 210,000 blocks, or about four years, halving the reward given to miners for validating blocks on the network. With the 2024 halving, the reward has been cut to 3.125 BTC per block, promoting greater supply scarcity.
Historically, halving has been a trigger for Bitcoin appreciation cycles as supply becomes tighter and demand continues to grow. The April 2024 event has already started to impact the market, with signs that the shortage is positively influencing the price.
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2. Impact of the 2024 Halving on Bitcoin Price
Previous halvings have had a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. Since the 2024 halving, it is already possible to observe a gradual increase in price, similar to previous cycles, although the market is still consolidating the future direction.
2024 Halving: Since the April event, Bitcoin has experienced a gradual rise, with a roughly 30% appreciation in the following six months. This trend is consistent with previous halvings, where the largest price spikes occur between 12 and 18 months after the event.
3. Technical Analysis: Key Indicators Since the Halving
With the halving already completed, it is crucial to monitor the technical indicators that are currently influencing the market and that may suggest new price movements.
a. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI is an indicator that measures the strength of market momentum. Since the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s RSI has been hovering around 65, suggesting a slight overbought, which is typical in post-halving periods. Historically, levels above 70 are followed by corrections, so it’s important to monitor this indicator to avoid buying at highs.
b. 200-Day Moving Averages (SMA 200)
The 200-day SMA continues to be a strong support for Bitcoin’s price. The asset is trading above this average, which indicates that the market has been in a long-term uptrend since the halving. A break below the 200-day average would be a warning sign of a possible reversal.
c. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The MACD continues to show a bullish crossover since before the halving, which supports the thesis that the buying momentum is still in place. This indicator is essential to confirm the beginning of new trends and has shown consistency in the long-term analysis of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Post-Halving 2024 Technical Chart
4. The Dynamics of Supply and Demand
The 2024 halving drastically reduced the amount of new bitcoins entering the market, increasing the scarcity of the currency. However, the demand for Bitcoin has not decreased, especially with growing institutional interest.
the. Impact on Mining
Bitcoin miners face new challenges following the halving, with the reward reduced to 3.125 BTC per block. Less efficient miners are being squeezed out of the market, while large mining operations with access to cheap power and cutting-edge infrastructure continue to profit. This creates a temporary increase in mining power, which could impact the network’s security in the short term.
b. Institutional Demand
In the six months following the 2024 halving, there has been a surge in institutional interest. Large corporations and investment funds continue to view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic instability. In addition, the growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs in various parts of the world has generated significant additional demand.
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5. Post-Halving Predictions for 2024-2025
Technical and fundamental analysis suggests that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory over the next 12 to 18 months after the halving. Models like Stock-to-Flow (S2F) predict that the price of Bitcoin could reach levels between $100,000 and $150,000 by the end of 2025 as scarcity becomes more pronounced and global adoption continues to grow .
However, market volatility and the potential impacts of future regulations may create challenges in the short term.
Post-Halving Price Projection Chart
5. Post-Halving Predictions for 2024-2025
Technical and fundamental analysis suggests that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory over the next 12 to 18 months after the halving. Models like Stock-to-Flow (S2F) predict that the price of Bitcoin could reach levels between $100,000 and $150,000 by the end of 2025 as scarcity becomes more pronounced and global adoption continues to grow .
However, market volatility and the potential impacts of future regulations may create challenges in the short term.
Post-Halving Price Projection Chart
6. Conclusion: The Road Ahead for Bitcoin in 2024
The 2024 halving has already brought significant changes to the market, with a clear reduction in the supply of new bitcoins and a gradual increase in demand. Technical indicators continue to suggest an uptrend, but investors should be prepared for volatility and possible corrections in the short term.
The next 12 to 18 months will be crucial for Bitcoin, with many expecting the full impact of the halving to materialize, sending the price to new heights. Closely monitoring technical indicators and staying up to date on supply and demand dynamics will be essential to making the most of opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
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