Looking back at history, after the "94 Incident" in 2017, the market experienced drastic adjustments, and then ushered in a strong bull market; after the "312 Liquidity Crisis" in 2020, the market strengthened again, and although the "512" incident in 2021 halved the Bitcoin As for currency prices, the bull market continues. In 2022, the market has experienced multiple purges: retail investors, project developers, miners, institutions and exchanges have all suffered varying degrees of blows, and the bottom has gradually consolidated. As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the market has picked up again, and a bull market has followed.
Such cycles are often inseparable from Bitcoin’s “halving effect.” Whenever Bitcoin is halved, the supply decreases and miners' mining costs increase. This phenomenon prompts the market to rise to relieve the pressure on miners and attract new funds to enter the market. Bull markets usually come quietly, and by the time most people realize it, prices may have risen sharply, missing the best opportunity to enter the market.
The early stages of a bull market are often accompanied by widespread market pessimism. Most investors have lost patience with the market, and when market transactions are light and funds are loose, smart money begins to gradually enter the market. The market performance at this stage is relatively dull, but internal and external factors work together. Once funds begin to pour in and look for the most trending targets, the bull market will gradually start.
Typical characteristics of a currency bull market include:
1. Bitcoin and Ethereum hit all-time highs: When the two major currencies exceed the highs of the previous bull market, it is usually a clear sign of a bull market.
2. Changes in indicators: If the Ahr999 index exceeds 10, or the increase index reaches 80% for 60 consecutive days, it indicates that the market is overheated and the bull market has entered the late stage.
3. Prices deviate from the moving average: The daily K-line prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum deviate from the 60-day moving average by more than 30%, indicating that investors entering the market at each time period are in a profitable state.
4. Moving averages are dispersed: The 30-day, 60-day, 120-day, and 200-day moving averages are dispersed, indicating that chips are no longer concentrated and the market has entered a risk range.
5. Frequent exchange activities: Exchanges and project parties are striking while the iron is hot, launching new activities and projects frequently, and market funds are active.
6. Investor sentiment is high: Moments and groups are filled with myths about getting rich, and individuals are in high spirits, hoping to catch the last wave of success.
7. The market value of altcoins is rising: Bitcoin’s market value has dropped to about 30%, and altcoins have skyrocketed, suggesting that the market has entered a danger zone.
8. Transaction volume has increased significantly: daily transaction volume has reached hundreds of billions of dollars, and capital activity has increased significantly.
9. Large investors such as the Ethereum Foundation frequently cash out: The foundation frequently transfers assets to exchanges, and cash-out behavior increases.
10. Market news continues to be good: All kinds of good news continue to emerge, and new market stories emerge one after another.
The duration of a currency bull market usually ranges from 6 months to 2 years, and is affected by multiple factors, including market demand, policy regulation, technological innovation and community activities. Market demand and investor sentiment play a key role, while policy changes and technological innovations will further amplify market fluctuations. When the bull market enters the mid-to-late period, price fluctuations intensify, and plummets and adjustments occur frequently. Investors should remain rational and avoid blindly chasing prices higher.
In summary, the emergence and end of a bull market are often difficult to predict accurately, and the market is full of volatility. The four elements of faith, perseverance, perseverance and gratitude are particularly important for investors who have been in the market for a long time. Only by sticking to your beliefs can you seize the opportunities brought by the market and ultimately achieve considerable returns. #非农人数大幅升温 #HBO纪录片或揭示中本聪身份 #加密市场急跌 #灰度拟推出AAVE信托基金 $BTC