The non-farm data on October 4 is the first employment data after the Fed cut interest rates.
In both of Powell's public speeches, he talked about the Fed's attention to the labor market, including the direct 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, which was caused by employment data. At that time, Powell said that if the employment data was seen in July, the interest rate might be cut in July.
Therefore, the employment data has a very high status in the Fed's mind. For investors, the rise in unemployment rate is likely to represent a recession in the US economy. The Fed's view on the unemployment rate is very decisive. In the September meeting, it was made clear that the median unemployment rate in 2024 and 2025 is 4.4%, which means that the Fed does not want the unemployment rate to continue to rise.
