Token2049's essay summary

(Trust + value transfer) This is blockchain. Belief. Value is currency.

Under macro-rational analysis:

Both the project party and the VC are in a lazy state. They all know that fresh blood is needed, but they are unwilling to really invest money to do this, or they are waiting for others to do this in hardship. There is no confidence to create some new narratives, and the top V God is busy dating.

In fact, the biggest narrative is AI combined with Depin, etc. There are few players in the Chinese circle, and they are all foreigners playing, or Chinese circle activities and European and American players play by themselves. Although everyone knows that the ecological niche is becoming more and more important, what is your label?

Draw a picture. Segment the market from two dimensions: crypto native vs traditional, infrastructure vs application. Now, the second quadrant is very confused, the third quadrant is shrouded in FUD, the fourth quadrant has some breakthroughs, and the first quadrant is busy enjoying the traffic dividend. The market trend is confusing, what do you think

The current general trend is from payment to deposit, to loan to wealth management, to derivatives, to e-commerce. The path to industry is becoming clearer and clearer. For example, the Grad taxi app in Southeast Asia can support digital currency. In the final analysis, it is more rational: don't look at anything, be bullish. What applications, what ecology. What traditions. One rise can solve all worries, for example, BTC has a woolen ecology

1. Most panel guests are pessimistic about market expectations, and even worry that if there is no new innovation and new growth in May next year, the market ecology may be reshuffled and reshaped as a whole

2. Lack of innovation, the stock is concentrated at the top, the top 15 coins weighted by the number of users and market value, such as doge and shib, have fallen 70-80% from the highest point, and others are even worse (based on the data I have seen, I guess the exchange trading volume may decrease by 80% from this year)

3. Decentralized stablecoins and payment applications, two infrastructure constructions, are obvious incremental tracks

4. Second-tier exchanges have begun to hit marketing