Huawei's Ren Zhengfei: The next 10 years will be a very painful historical period, and the global economy will continue to decline;
JPMorgan Chase CEO: The world may be facing the "most dangerous period" in decades;
Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund: The probability of a world war has risen to 50%;
Sequoia Capital (USA): The tough times have arrived. This is a long-term recovery process and will not be a V-shaped reversal.
The world's richest man, Musk: The worst financial crisis in history may happen;
Li Ka-shing almost cleared out his mainland real estate after 2016, and sold off his Hong Kong real estate at a 30% discount in 2023;
The premise for the economy to have an upward fluctuation cycle is that the population structure is relatively young. The only underlying indicator of economic development is population. Now that the population is aging and the number of newborns is falling off a cliff, it is estimated that it will be difficult for the economy to maintain an L-shaped trend.
During a bear market, even good companies can fall by 60%-70%. The real estate era has come to an end. Even a 60% drop in first-tier cities is not uncommon. Tokyo and Hong Kong have both fallen by this much. Their population density, economic development, and degree of internationalization are among the highest in the world. It is still unknown how long the real estate crisis will last, possibly a decade or even longer.
It will be difficult to have general investment opportunities in the future. There will only be a small number of local structural opportunities. Gold, Bitcoin, core real estate in first-tier cities, energy, food and real hard technology assets are valuable. #经济危机 #比特币 #黄金 #马斯克
