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Have you noticed that the entire market is always sluggish in September? Especially Bitcoin, it seems to hit the brakes at this time of year and keeps falling.
Bitwise founder Matt Hougan also talked about this issue recently, analyzing why "September always falls" and optimistically believes that as uncertainties dissipate in October and November, Bitcoin may see a big rebound. 💥
September Curse: Bitcoin Historical Data Reveals the Truth
Since Bitcoin began trading in 2010, September has seen an average decline of 4.5%, making it the worst performing month for Bitcoin. Looking at historical data, September has fallen in nine of the thirteen years, with the worst being September 2011, when Bitcoin plummeted by 41.2%! 📉 This year seems to be no different, as Bitcoin has fallen by 7% as of September 8.
Matt Hougan summarizes three reasons why September is always so "tough":
1. Almost all risk assets fell in September
It's not just Bitcoin. The stock market doesn't perform well in September every year. Since 1929, September has become the only month in which stocks have fallen more times than they have risen, especially the Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has performed worse. 📉
Economists have tried to attribute the phenomenon to increased volatility after the summer or the effects of the funds' fiscal year-end, but no one is 100% sure.
2. SEC enforcement season puts pressure on crypto markets
The SEC’s fiscal year ends in October, which means they tend to ramp up enforcement efforts before the end of September, especially in cryptocurrency-related lawsuits. This year is no exception, with a number of major enforcement actions expected before the end of the month. 💼
3. Self-fulfillment of psychological expectations
Hougan believes that the most reasonable explanation may be everyone's psychological expectations! Everyone habitually thinks that September will fall, and this collective expectation has pushed the market down. 🧠
October "Uptober" is here, is Bitcoin going to rebound?
In contrast, October was a good month for Bitcoin investors, and was even nicknamed “Uptober.” Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s average rise in October is as high as 30%, making it one of the most anticipated months in the crypto market. 🎉
Hougan also pointed out that in addition to seasonal factors, current market conditions are also crucial. Uncertain factors, such as:
• Impact of the US presidential election
• Speculation on the timing of the Fed rate cut
• Changes in ETF fund flows
These uncertainties will gradually dissipate with the arrival of October and November, and the market may usher in a big rebound! 📈
Regardless, Matt Hougan is ready and looking forward to Bitcoin's return to glory. What about you? 🤑