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Hello everyone, I am A10JQK! Today, let's talk about the US CPI data and see if we can smell the taste of interest rate cuts from it! ♠️♥️♣️♦️

♠️ Look at the August CPI annual rate, which dropped from 2.9% to 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6%! Does this imply that inflation is slowly cooling down? The Fed should be relieved now!

♥️ Look at the core CPI monthly rate, which jumped from the expected 0.2% to 0.3%. This little guy is not obedient, it seems that the "diehards" of inflation are still at work!

♣️ However, the core CPI annual rate has stopped steadily at 3.2%, exactly as expected. This tells us that although inflation is falling, it has not yet reached the Fed's target of 2%.

♦️ Overall, inflation is indeed going down, but the pace is not big. Economic recession? There is really no obvious sign. So, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut? I don't think it's possible!

The Fed may think this way:

1. Inflation is indeed falling, but it is not time to relax yet.

2. The economy has no obvious signs of recession, and the risk of a large rate cut is too high now.

3. At most, consider a small rate cut, such as 25 basis points, but 50 basis points? Overthinking!

Dear card friends, how do you think the Fed will play? Will it continue to stay put, or will it make a small rate cut? Or do you think there is still a chance for a 50 basis point rate cut? Welcome to show your insights in the comment section! ♠️♥️♣️♦️ #美国经济软着陆？ #美国CPI数据 #美联储政策 #通胀走势