#BTC The price fluctuated slightly around 2W8 over the weekend

Judging from the range oscillation pattern, it looks like a breakthrough

In morphology, when the price is at the upper edge of the oscillation range and the fluctuation is getting smaller and smaller, there is a high probability that it will break through.

However, over the weekend, the news about the Israeli-Palestinian war continued to ferment, making the originally clear market situation somewhat uncertain.

First of all, the two major parties in the United States are surprisingly consistent this time, both saying that they will firmly support Israel and provide assistance.

This kind of voice has once again caused uncertainty in the bipartisan agreement that was originally likely to fail on November 17.

If the war is not over by then, it may prompt the two parties to reach an agreement as soon as possible to avoid a government shutdown.

After all, there have been reports of American citizens being killed there.

In this situation, neither party has much choice, even just for political correctness.

Will the issue of new bonds be used to solve the problem of over-budget expenditure? This leaves a lot of room for imagination.

Secondly, this war has caused oil prices to rise.

Although no more Middle Eastern countries are involved in the war yet

But if the war cannot be ended in the short term,

There is a high possibility that neighboring countries will be involved in this war.

Oil prices will most likely continue to rise.

The rise in oil prices may not be good news for the Federal Reserve.

After all, America is called the country on wheels

The rise in oil prices will have a huge impact on all aspects of the country.

Therefore, if the war cannot be ended in a short period of time, the possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates will become increasingly greater.

As the war drags on, even higher interest rates will be maintained for longer.

The risk market's expectation of a rate cut next year will be lower.

In this case, the risk aversion of funds in the risk market will increase.

Some people may say that cryptocurrency itself has the property of hedging

When banks collapsed this year, the hedging function of cryptocurrencies was demonstrated

There is nothing wrong with this, but personally,

I think there is a big difference in the underlying logic between bank crashes and wars.

Of course, everyone has different opinions on this topic, so I won’t go into details here.

Judging from the market trend, the U.S. stock index futures opened lower in the morning as expected.

Although there was no sustained decline, the gap was not filled quickly either.

This gap-down opening shows the attitude of the risk market.

Whether it will rise or fall next, we still need to observe the development of the situation and the fermentation of emotions.

The reaction of Bitcoin this time is actually not that big.

Compared with the last time the U.S. stock index futures gapped up, the increase in Bitcoin

Bitcoin did not react to this lower opening this morning

It can be clearly felt from here

The main force's original intention was to push up the price, but an unexpected situation occurred.

Then don't move yet, wait and see how the mainstream risk market reacts before deciding on the next move.

Therefore, it is highly likely that the big fluctuations in Bitcoin will have to wait until the evening US trading time.

As for me personally, my current strategy is still to arrange short orders in the medium and long term.

Because I don’t think there is any sign of a large influx of funds into the cryptocurrency market.

To significantly increase the market, or as some people say, to start a bull market, you need real money.

In the context of the continuous outflow of funds in the cryptocurrency market, I think all the price increases are scams.

Of course, we still need to continue to observe what impact the sudden situation of war will have on the currency market.

From the trend point of view, if there is a small fluctuation on the upper edge of the oscillation range and it fails to break through,

The market is likely to move towards the lower edge of the range

In terms of operational advice, whether you want to go short here or not, at least I think you can't go long here.

Of course, short selling also requires controlling positions and leverage, and setting stop losses where necessary.