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Many believe that a rate cut in September is a certainty and expect the market to rally to $66,000, $70,000 or even higher. However, the current reality may be quite different, as we are in a bear market. This view, discussed two weeks ago, ignores the liquidity of the market. With the Fed meeting set for September 17, there is still more than a month to go before that date. Prices are unlikely to continue rising during this time. Instead, institutions are expected to start pushing prices up just two weeks before the Fed meeting to match speculative expectations.
Therefore, August is likely to be a correction period. After hitting a low, the market may start rising. This scenario is like the candy promise on September 17, when you have to wait a month to get it. The anticipation increases as the date approaches and the closer it gets, the more excited you are. However, the market will not hype up this “candy” too early. The hype usually starts only 1-2 weeks before the important date to have the biggest impact. After getting the “candy”, the excitement will gradually decrease and the market may correct down.
When looking at the K-line chart, we judge the trend through the bullish opening line, so August is expected to close down. The highs and lows have been trending down, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
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