When pause comes, the process is very long. Is it different from what you thought?

1. The Federal Reserve believes that it will raise interest rates once more this year. The market thinks that there is a high probability that it will not raise interest rates. Who is right and who is wrong has become less important, but an interest rate cut will come soon.

2. Since 1990, the U.S. stock market has suspended interest rates for different lengths of time, with the longest being 13 months, the shortest being 2 months, and the average being 10 months.

3. Taking the average to deduce, if there is no interest rate increase this year, the current interest level will remain until August 2024, when the BTC halving has already occurred.

4. U.S. stocks continued to rise during the interest rate suspension period (the Russell 1000 rose an average of 13% in six months during this period)

5. Economic recession will not occur during the interest rate raising or interest rate suspension stages, but will occur several months or even longer after the interest rate cut begins. Future recessions will not occur until at least 2025.

6. If interest rates are raised again this year, the end of the interest rate suspension will be even longer, and the big water release you have been waiting for throughout 2024 has not come.

Predictions are based on data from previous years, maybe this time it will be different. But this time the Fed will not keep interest rates for a short time. It may be very long. Stay patient and be prepared for a protracted war.