Analysis of the latest BTC market on August 26: Analysis of the latest BTC market on August 26: Urgent notice, has the fifth wave of the weekly level started? Or has the Z wave of the fourth wave of the weekly level not ended yet? After a careful review, I still stand on the Z wave, and the bulls still need to prove themselves.
1. Determine the position of the disk:
If it is the first wave of the weekly five waves, the following conditions must be met:
(1) The first wave should conform to the structure of a driving wave; that is, the market should be a five-wave structure. At present, only three points can be drawn at the daily level of the market, and it is impossible to make a complete judgment on the entire driving wave.
(2) Two key factors must be met: Wave 3 is usually the wave with the largest amplitude, and Wave 4 cannot intersect with Wave 1. Currently, the amplitude of Wave 1 from around 49,000 to 62,755 is about 27.33%. Wave 3 is generally the longest wave. Even if it increases by 27.33%, it needs to increase from around 56,120 to around 71,500. (Of course, if it actually stands at 7w, there will be no shorts, and the large relay structure has been destroyed)
(3) Regarding the fact that the 4th wave and the 1st wave cannot intersect, we need to observe the details. The judgment here is a bit complicated. First of all, if the rise from 56120 is considered to be a complete five-wave structure, then the adjustment price cannot be lower than
62755. In this structure, the weekly 5-1 structure has actually been denied. Because this driving wave has failed, it must continue to rise, and the price must hit 71500.
(4) If we believe that the price has only gone through two waves since it came up from 56120, and wave 3 has not yet been completed, then the price cannot be lower than 60300 in the subsequent adjustment process, and it needs to continue to rise rapidly. Because wave 2 in the current structure is very simple, and wave 4 is a complex wave, at the current price, there is no room for a long adjustment of wave 4.
(5) As shown in the figure, the first wave of the five weekly waves should be pushed upward according to the wave pattern on my right, below the current price.
Therefore, based on the above requirements, the biggest requirement for bulls is to quickly pull the market up.
2. If it is still the Z wave stage of the fourth wave of the weekly line, then we need to observe the current structure from the perspective of a guiding wedge
(1) The current trend is more like a 3-3-5 platform structure. Structurally, this is a relay structure. Even if the price can create a new high here, from this perspective, it can only move in a small wave pattern and cannot support more waves. Therefore, from this perspective, 65,000 is not the highest point, but the second highest point, and even if there is a higher point, it will not be too far from the second highest point.
(2) In addition to the rapid increase in price, the negative leading wedge also requires that during the adjustment process, it is best not to see continuous short-selling volume, because the short position at the current position must appear to be exhausted or discontinuous before the bulls will pull it up.
3. Why do I still tend to favor the Z wave in my judgment of the market? In fact, from the perspective of the wave structure of the market, it is actually okay at present, and it is still neutral. It's just that the long structure is weak. I think a more important factor for the short side is the quality of this pull-up. From the data point of view, the pull-up from 56120 is more inclined to be the contract pulling up. If you analyze it carefully, you can see that the main short contract opened a position on March 5. The contract's position instantly increased from 285e to 320e, and BTC released a huge amount. The main force completed the mid-term long-short layout conversion at this price. It is difficult to say that the main short position of 40e dollars has left the market. The only strong evidence is the spot absorption seen on August 5. There is also the possibility of hedging buying here. Because there is no way to get chips at a lower price here. Therefore, I doubt that the long position can pull up to 7w here, and even 67000 is not enough. There is a lot of pressure here.
BTC operation suggestions in summary:
Weekly: Bullish, but I still think the starting point of the bulls is not 49,000. If the price breaks 67,000, I will be cautiously bullish. If it breaks 71,500, I will be bullish.
Daily line: bearish. This is a good area to open a short position on the daily line. A conservative stop loss can be set at 67,000. I think there is strong pressure at 66,800. Of course, the most worthwhile entry point on the daily line is to wait for the rebound after the price breaks 62,755. That price is a very stable entry point for daily short positions, with a stop loss of around 66,000.
4h: It is possible to enter the market and short at 4h, and the stop loss price is also 67000. If you go long, there is a certain probability of being trapped here. The stop loss for going long is 60300. If it breaks here, it must not be a long. 1h: It is possible to go short at 1h, and the stop loss is set at 65500. Because from the perspective of 1h, it is just betting that this is the C point of the wedge, and you can't think about it anymore.
Regarding the CME gap, it is not recommended to bet on the 4h level order for this gap, but it is okay to bet on the 1h level. Because there is a possibility of a wave of pull-ups, in this case, the gap may not be filled in the medium term. Other comments are welcome in the comment section.
1. Determine the position of the disk:
If it is the first wave of the weekly five waves, the following conditions must be met:
(1) The first wave should conform to the structure of a driving wave; that is, the market should be a five-wave structure. At present, only three points can be drawn at the daily level of the market, and it is impossible to make a complete judgment on the entire driving wave.
(2) Two key factors must be met: Wave 3 is usually the wave with the largest amplitude, and Wave 4 cannot intersect with Wave 1. Currently, the amplitude of Wave 1 from around 49,000 to 62,755 is about 27.33%. Wave 3 is generally the longest wave. Even if it increases by 27.33%, it needs to increase from around 56,120 to around 71,500. (Of course, if it actually stands at 7w, there will be no shorts, and the large relay structure has been destroyed)
(3) Regarding the fact that the 4th wave and the 1st wave cannot intersect, we need to observe the details. The judgment here is a bit complicated. First of all, if the rise from 56120 is considered to be a complete five-wave structure, then the adjustment price cannot be lower than
62755. In this structure, the weekly 5-1 structure has actually been negated. Because this driving wave has failed, it must continue to rise, and the price must hit 71500.
(4) If we believe that the price has only gone through two waves since it came up from 56120, and wave 3 has not yet been completed, then the price cannot be lower than 60300 in the subsequent adjustment process, and it needs to continue to rise rapidly. Because wave 2 in the current structure is very simple, and wave 4 is a complex wave, at the current price, there is no room for a long adjustment of wave 4.
(5) As shown in the figure, the first wave of the five weekly waves should be pushed upward according to the wave pattern on my right, below the current price.
Therefore, based on the above requirements, the biggest requirement for bulls is to quickly pull the market up.
2. If it is still the Z wave stage of the fourth wave of the weekly line, then we need to observe the current structure from the perspective of a guiding wedge
(1) The current trend is more like a 3-3-5 platform structure. Structurally, this is a relay structure. Even if the price can create a new high here, from this perspective, it can only move in a small wave pattern and cannot support more waves. Therefore, from this perspective, 65,000 is not the highest point, but the second highest point, and even if there is a higher point, it will not be too far from the second highest point.
(2) In addition to the rapid increase in price, the negative leading wedge also requires that during the adjustment process, it is best not to see continuous short-selling volume, because the short position at the current position must appear to be exhausted or discontinuous before the bulls will pull it up.
3. Why do I still tend to favor the Z wave in my judgment of the market? In fact, from the perspective of the wave structure of the market, it is actually okay at present, and it is still neutral. It's just that the long structure is weak. I think a more important factor for the short side is the quality of this pull-up. From the data point of view, the pull-up from 56120 is more inclined to be the contract pulling up. If you analyze it carefully, you can see that the main short contract opened a position on March 5. The contract's position instantly increased from 285e to 320e, and BTC released a huge amount. The main force completed the mid-term long-short layout conversion at this price. It is difficult to say that the main short position of 40e dollars has left the market. The only strong evidence is the spot absorption seen on August 5. There is also the possibility of hedging buying here. Because there is no way to get chips at a lower price here. Therefore, I doubt that the long position can pull up to 7w here, and even 67000 is not enough. There is a lot of pressure here.
BTC operation suggestions: focus on reversing positions and unwinding at high levels. Follow-up consultation WeChat: btc3049
Weekly: Bullish, but I still think the starting point of the bull market is not 49,000. If the price breaks 67,000, I will be cautiously bullish. If it breaks 71,500, I will be bullish.
Daily line: bearish. This is a good area to open a short position on the daily line. A conservative stop loss can be set at 67,000. I think there is strong pressure at 66,800. Of course, the most worthwhile entry point on the daily line is to wait for the rebound after the price breaks 62,755. That price is a very stable entry point for daily short positions, with a stop loss of around 66,000.
4h: It is possible to enter the market and short at 4h, and the stop loss price is also 67000. If you go long, there is a certain probability of being trapped here. The stop loss for going long is 60300. If it breaks here, it must not be a long. 1h: It is possible to go short at 1h, and the stop loss is set at 65500. Because from the perspective of 1h, it is just betting that this is the C point of the wedge, and you can't think about it anymore.
Regarding the CME gap, it is not recommended to bet on the 4h level order for this gap, but it is okay to bet on the 1h level. Because there is a possibility of a wave of pull-ups, in this case, the gap may not be filled in the medium term. Other comments are welcome in the comment section.
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