The cryptocurrency market will usher in a big wave of market trends
At 10:00 a.m. on August 23, 2024, Beijing time (10:00 a.m. on August 23, US Eastern Time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
The theme of this annual meeting is "Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of monetary policy." The market generally pays attention to his speech to explore the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs expects Powell to express more confidence in the inflation outlook in his speech and emphasize the downside risks of the job market. Earlier, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the latest economic data showed that US inflation has been controlled and it is time to consider adjusting borrowing costs. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to start a rate cut cycle at the September interest rate meeting.
However, analysts generally believe that it is difficult for Powell to pre-commit to a certain rate cut trajectory, and will not give a clear answer to the timing and magnitude of the rate cut, and his incremental information may be limited. The reason is that the US economic outlook is still unclear and the Federal Reserve is highly concerned about future data. If Powell fails to send a clear dovish signal, the stock market may see a wave of adjustments.
However, there are also views that if the employment data in August does not deteriorate significantly, Powell is more likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September; if the employment data unexpectedly declines, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
