🔒 75% of Bitcoin has not moved for more than half a year, what is the market brewing?
The current situation in the Bitcoin market is very interesting! At present, up to 75% of Bitcoin has been held for more than six months, which means that in the past six months, these Bitcoins have not been sold at all, and holders generally adopt a strategy of holding coins without moving.
📊 From the second figure below, we can see that long-term holders, that is, investors who have held Bitcoin for more than ten years (purple area), are active and increasing their Bitcoin positions.
At the same time, Bitcoin investors who have held Bitcoin for more than six months (yellow area) account for about 75% of the market share. This shows that most holders have a firm long-term belief in their investment.
💭 What I want to say is that if 75% of Bitcoin in the Bitcoin market is in a holding state, it also provides large institutions with potential opportunities for price manipulation. As we all know, the manipulation ability of these large institutions in the US stock market is obvious to all, and the market value of US stocks is far more than dozens of times that of Bitcoin.
In this context, it does not seem difficult for institutions to manipulate the short-term trend of Bitcoin. Therefore, for investors who are keen on participating in contract trading, it is important to strictly control their leverage and positions to avoid unnecessary risk of liquidation.
📉 At the same time, some analysts pointed out that the current situation of Bitcoin is very similar to the trend before the crash in 2018, 2019 and 2021. In addition, more than 80% of short-term holders (holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days) are still in a loss. If the market ushered in another wave of sharp retracements, these short-term holders are very likely to choose to sell due to pressure, thereby exerting greater selling pressure on the Bitcoin market.
🤔 In Figure 3 below, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders is about 4.32 million, of which 3.45 million are in a loss. Therefore, whether short-term investors will capitulate and sell in the next wave of market correction is also something worthy of everyone's attention!
Finally, what do you think of the fact that more than 80% of short-term holders in the Bitcoin market are in a loss? Faced with institutional market crashes, can they withstand the downward pressure?See you in the comments section!
