The current macro-level is unprecedentedly complex, and the flow of funds in the global capital market is deeply affected by the uncertainty of the external environment. Focusing on potential crises and emergencies around the world, we first noticed that tensions in the Middle East have intensified sharply, and Iran's potential attack threat against Israel is imminent. The White House has issued an early warning and strengthened its defenses. At the same time, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Israel's credit rating, further reflecting the concerns about regional security.
On the other hand, the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to loom, and the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Ukraine's military operations have penetrated deep into Russian territory and controlled a large area of territory, including nearly 1,000 square kilometers and several towns and villages. President Putin's tough response hinted that the conflict may escalate further, and even triggered concerns about the use of nuclear weapons, exacerbating the tension in the global security situation.
In addition, changes in the political field are also noteworthy. Trump's leading position in the election prediction market was reversed by Harris, who took the lead in key swing states. The unexpected events encountered by Trump seem to have accelerated this transformation, and the market began to discuss the so-called "Harris trade", but for us, its specific content is not the core. What is important is that the expectation of a non-Trump victory is generally regarded as a negative factor in the capital market.