In an uncertain market, you can only grasp the relatively certain parts. The market is chaotic most of the time, and only rarely will the evidence supporting a certain price direction appear to overlap and form a cross-validation. This is also a good time to intervene with a good profit and loss ratio.
At the same time, we also look at the dimensions of capital sentiment, chip distribution, technical analysis of trend positions, and cross-market validation.
First of all, from the perspective of the situation,
50000-52000 is a key support range, which covers the bull market support line of 52000 and the consolidation range before the surge in February. So I will pay special attention to the support of this range. When the price reaches 50000, RSI has entered the oversold range. The last time it entered the oversold range was in July, and the last time it was in August 2023.
But at the same time, the end of any stage reversal must be accompanied by the hunting of liquidity. The so-called full hunting of liquidity during the decline is to exhaust the patience of short-term bulls. There are usually some indicators of capital sentiment that can be tracked, such as obvious liquidation volume, negative funding rate, and trading volume that is significantly higher than the band decline...
Therefore, even if 50,000-52,000 is the key range, if it can hold up, it is best to do so in the form of a spike. In this way, healthy funds will intervene and the price will be more likely to have the momentum to reverse.
In terms of chip distribution, I will track the buying and selling dynamics of traders with different funding levels on the chain. Why should I track such indicators?
For example, the so-called war factors and national central bank factors are all materials used to tell stories a posteriori. The market has already priced in such news, and following such news to make transactions will basically result in a lag. However, if a country is going to start a war on xx, people with sources of information are likely to know in advance and take action in advance, and this action will be reflected in their trading behavior. (Here I just take the war factor as an example, the reason for their behavior is not the point, the point is the behavior itself) Therefore, I made a reminder very early, that is, I tracked their trading behavior that was completely different from that of retail investors at the price of 69,000, and then continued to operate in the opposite direction. At the same time, people with different chip levels at the bottom basically did the same reverse operation.
Cross-validation between markets, such as the gap between the futures market and the spot market, such as the divergence of price behavior between BTC and the stock market and the foreign exchange market, is a point that many people overlook but plays a very important role in price analysis. Divergence usually tends to converge, but divergence is not limited to price divergence, but also includes divergence of CME Gap, divergence between DXY and BTC, and divergence between SPX500 and BTC. But because divergence does not mean that it will be filled quickly, it is necessary to look at it in conjunction with other indicators. As I said on the morning of the 5th, the new CME gap of 58,500-63,000 has been formed, which is also an important reason why I think the 52,000 bull market support line will not fall below. At the same time, on August 2, DXY also diverged from the trend of BTC, and the convergence of this divergence is usually only a matter of time.
So in summary, I preliminarily judge that the position around 50,000 is likely to be the stage bottom. This judgment also needs to be confirmed by the price behavior. The reason why a key position becomes a key position must be tested by the price twice. So if around 50,000 is indeed the stage bottom, during the second test, the price cannot form a lower low, and the falling volume cannot continue to increase. In the evening, the price retested the position of 49,500, and the falling volume decreased significantly. From the 5-minute chart, we can see that the price repeatedly tested 50,000 and failed several times, and the buying volume increased. It proves that the price rejected the 50,000 point.
At this point, 50,000 can basically be confirmed as the bottom of the stage with a high probability.
