Many people say that there is a high probability that interest rates will be cut in September. It is possible, but it is not my opinion. Let me analyze it for you from the perspective of macroeconomics and international situation. This has to be said about the US economic sanctions policy in the past few years. The US has been printing dollars in the past few years in order to promote inflation. Why did the domestic stock market and real estate continue to rise in the past few years? It is because of this reason. Why is the real estate falling now? The stock market has also fallen from its high point? It is very simple because of the US dollar interest rate hike. The old American method is to raise interest rates at the highest point of the domestic stock market to let the US dollar flow back. Once the interest rate is raised and the dollar flows back, the current Chinese stock market and real estate market will plummet. When the price falls to a low level, the returning US dollar will be used to buy the bottom of Chinese assets and then clean up and disintegrate China from the inside!
In fact, everyone can feel that the current domestic economic environment is getting worse and worse. If ordinary people can feel it, then it is definitely bad. Why doesn't China release money when it is so bad? It's not that it won't release money, but it can't release money at this stage. China won't release money unless the United States cuts interest rates. Why? If it releases money now, first, the money can't flow into domestic private enterprises. Second, the money will most likely be illegally taken to the United States. Why? Because of the high interest rate. China releases money and the United States raises interest rates. The Americans can directly drain the Chinese economy. You should understand it by now. If the United States doesn't cut interest rates, China can't release money. In other words, if China doesn't release money, the United States will not cut interest rates, at least not at this stage! China released money as soon as the United States cut interest rates. Why hasn't it cut interest rates this year? Because the United States wants to hold China back from releasing money, so that China's asset economy will explode and then buy Chinese assets at the bottom.
So at this stage, many people say that there will be a rate cut in September. I feel that it is a bit uncertain, just like in the past two months, many people also said that there would be a rate cut, but there was no rate cut. At this stage, what can make the Americans cut interest rates in advance is not the financial report or the data, but China's early release of money, but this has been minimal in recent months. Now both sides are waiting for the other side to give up and are holding on.
So the question is, when will the interest rates be cut?
Most likely it will be at the end of this year, after the election. Or next year!