From the data, the trading volume of Bitcoin at the price of $26,000 is larger than that at $30,000, which indicates that the funds for bottom-fishing have increased. However, Bitcoin's performance is still weak, which means that even if the price of BTC rises and there is funds for bottom-fishing, investors are not willing to chase high prices during this period, indicating that the market is still driven by emotions. Even if emotions can temporarily raise prices, prices will still fall when emotions ebb. Insufficient trading volume, insufficient purchasing power, and insufficient liquidity have been suppressing the market, and the fundamental reason is that the Fed's interest rate hikes, balance sheet reduction, and bond financing have continuously withdrawn market funds.

Although the price is not advantageous, the transaction volume has increased. The address holding 10 BTC has hit a record high, reflecting that more investors believe that this is a reasonable price. In particular, it can be seen that the price of 26,000 US dollars has been very stable since April.

In April, especially after May, the SEC and CFTC launched an attack on Binance and Coinbase. From the current perspective, the market makers have been hit the hardest. Although the departure of market makers is a blow to BTC and ETH, it is not fatal. After all, funds are always concentrated at the top.

But for altcoins, the blow is huge. Without the liquidity support provided by market makers, prices continue to fall and occasionally plummet.

The rise that started in June was entirely due to BlackRock's application for ETF pricing, and this pricing will inevitably decline as the SEC continues to delay. In fact, when the so-called BlackRock internal news appeared, it was not the good news that friends thought, but it should be the beginning of bad news. After all, the internal information conveyed that even if the SEC's approval was obtained, it would take until 2024. So before 2024, how could the price remain unchanged or rise?

This goes back to the narrative of the crypto market itself. Narratives may be difficult to understand, but if we look at it from another perspective, why can Ai drive the rise of technology stocks and make Nvidia the fourth largest component of the S&P 500? This is not only because the story is well told, but also because everyone likes to hear this story, and more people think that this story can be told. The narrative of Ai is to change all aspects of life, but do you say that what has really changed now? Not yet, but this does not affect the expectation that it can be changed. This is the narrative.

So let's go back and look at the narrative of the crypto market itself. What makes me feel that it will change the current state of the crypto market? There is no doubt that BTC's spot ETF is one that can essentially expand the user attributes of BTC (including ETH), increase market liquidity, and allow people to buy BTC directly from Nasdaq, lowering the threshold for purchase.

Secondly, there is the halving cycle of BTC. This is a major trend. Although it is not a direct benefit, it raises the entry threshold for miners by putting pressure on them, thereby achieving an increase in the minimum price. Now miners will not make money starting at $18,000, and many miners will shut down if the price is below $18,000. Miners would rather not buy and hold on if the price is below $18,000 because they will lose money if they sell. After the halving, the price may rise to $28,000 or even higher, so this also changes the narrative of BTC.

Finally, the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle, although it is not a complete impact narrative, in essence, the Fed’s interest rate hike does not directly affect the price of BTC and ETH, but more on liquidity. Entering different cycles is actually a disturbance to the overall risk market, and the crypto market is disturbed as part of the risk market. Therefore, the interference of macro sentiment is not a direct effect, which is why macro sentiment sometimes feels very important to the price, and sometimes does not affect the price, this is because it will not directly affect liquidity.

At this point, you will know that in the current liquidity system, narrative is the standard for determining price trends. If the narrative changes, the price will change. If the narrative returns to the starting point, the price will also return to the starting point. However, unlike Ai, the narrative of the crypto market will be more vague. Ai can be reflected through performance, while the narrative of the crypto market can only be reflected through "facts". Therefore, the price of narrative change still needs to be confirmed by facts, and facts are also the best standard for measuring narrative.

It doesn’t matter what the crypto market says now. We may see changes in the prices of BTC and ETH due to expectations, but if expectations cannot be realized, the consumption of expectations will be reflected in the price. What is more important in the crypto market is the certainty of the news, which is equivalent to the financial report in the stock market. If the content is not implemented one day, it may be hyped one day. #BTC #美联储是否加息？ #fdusd