According to SEC public documents, ARK Invest has cooperated with ETP issuer 21Shares to submit an application for the first Ethereum spot ETF. The fund is called "ARK 21Shares ETHEREUM ETF". The fund is the first attempt to directly invest in ETH, the second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market value, by listing in the United States.
This news had a certain impact on the price of Ethereum. Initially, the price of Ethereum rose from $1,625 to $1,670, but the increase failed to continue and soon fell back to around $1,630, and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range within this range, with an increase of only 0.02% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin's trend was similar, falling 0.17% in the last 24 hours.
After BlackRock set off a wave of applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs, Volatility Shares submitted an application for an Ethereum futures ETF to the SEC on July 28. Subsequently, many US fund management companies also applied for Ethereum futures ETFs. Currently, there are as many as 16 Ethereum futures ETFs waiting for SEC review.
Sources revealed that the SEC may approve multiple Ethereum futures ETF applications at the same time. Volatility Shares also stated that it plans to launch an Ethereum futures ETF on October 12, becoming the first Ethereum futures ETF launched in the United States according to standard procedures.
If the SEC really approves the application for Ethereum spot ETF, these companies will most likely also apply for spot ETF or undergo transformation.
Bloomberg said that the SEC should approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, which could bring in $30 trillion in funds once approved. GBTC is the world's second largest Bitcoin entity, holding more than 16 billion Bitcoins. Currently, Bitcoin is mainly short-term volatile, and the lows are getting lower and lower. Last night, it fell back to $25,300 again. This position has become the last straw for the bulls. Once this key point is broken, the price may fall further. It is recommended to focus on high altitude operations.
The interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin halving and spot ETFs are key factors affecting the long-term trend of the currency price. As for the interest rate hike, two Fed officials made hawkish remarks, suggesting that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates this year. However, the remarks of these officials may be affected by their personal positions and the current economic situation, and cannot represent the overall position of the Fed.
In any case, the Fed's interest rate hike decision will also be affected by other factors such as economic data and political events. When deciding whether to raise interest rates, the Fed needs to take all these factors into consideration to ensure economic balance and stability. As for the specific time of the interest rate hike, the market currently predicts that the probability of a rate hike in September is basically zero, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in November is slightly higher than 50%. I expect the last rate hike may be in November this year, and the rate cut will begin next year. It is an indisputable fact that the rate hike cycle is nearing its end!
Is this the best time to buy?
The altcoins on Binance have been rising wildly, and recently small coins with a market value of less than 20 million have been sought after by hot money, causing the market to continue for several days. I estimate that this will have an impact on the overall market trend, and the confidence in the crypto market is expected to gradually recover.
We have been emphasizing that there will be a good upward trend at the end of the year, so now is the best time to buy. Focus on mainstream currencies, supplemented by some strategies for altcoins. For junk altcoins, if you have technical analysis to keep up with the hot money, you can participate in the short-term rally, but if you do not have such technical analysis ability, it is recommended not to trade blindly, especially to maintain consistency, so as not to cause asset losses.
