The market in the second half of the year will show a downward spiral process of decline and rebound. Investors are advised to wait and see. The LSD sector is the main direction of the next wave of market. New projects have growth potential, but the market value of the top currencies is large. The holdings data of venture capital companies show that Ethereum has become the largest holding of the top venture capital companies, and the next wave of performance may exceed expectations.
How do you view the current market cycle? Old readers know that it has been emphasized that there may be a big drop in the second half of the year, and the bottom is believed to be around 20,000. But unless there is a black swan event, the decline will be a slow decline, and it is unlikely to reach the bottom in a short time. Therefore, the market trend in the second half of the year may be a spiral decline process of decline, rebound, decline, and rebound, and there may be a series of various altcoins in turn, most of which are unpredictable. For long-term investors, it is recommended to wait and see.
The LSD sector is the main theme of the next wave of market, and this point does not need to be emphasized again. As I wrote in a long article before, the disadvantage of this sector is that the market value of the top currencies is large, and they have experienced the baptism of the last bull market, while new projects have not shown much signs of breaking through. However, the good news is that a group of new projects in 2022-2023 are entering the market, as can be seen from the figure below. Their market value is small, and they have the foundation for a hundredfold growth in the next bull market.
I would like to share an interesting data. Currently, the largest holding of the top venture capital firms in the crypto world is Ethereum (ETH), while Bitcoin (BTC) does not appear in the top 20. This is indeed somewhat contrary to my cognition. It seems that the next wave of Ethereum may perform better than I expected.
Let’s talk about the trend of mainstream altcoins in the self-selected area:
DYDX: Among all the mainstream altcoins in my selection area, it has the strongest trend. This is not just due to the short-term rise and fall, but because its position is more advantageous than the current Bitcoin and Ethereum. DYDX will form a weekly bottom in advance, and it is likely to rise sharply first after the Bitcoin halving next year.
XRP: It rises or falls in sync with Bitcoin, but is slightly stronger than Ethereum. In the future, as Bitcoin adjusts deeply, it may fall further, with a reference bottom-picking range of 0.29-0.36.
SOL: The weekly line is about to form a death cross and is below the zero axis. It is basically linked with Ethereum in the short and medium term. It may fall back to below 16 in the future.
DOGE: The trend is similar to SOL, but faster. The lowest points in the past three months were all rebounded after a pin near the lower track of the weekly line. The general low point range is between 0.04950-0.05250, and the extreme lowest point reference value is 0.03795.
MASK: Linked with Ethereum, but faster. In mid-July, the weekly MACD crossed the zero axis, while the daily MACD had bottomed out. Therefore, the extent of the continued decline in the short term will not be too large. However, the lowest point before the bull market is still referenced between 1-1.99. In addition, currencies such as SAND, MANA, AXS, DOT, UNI, and ETC run synchronously with Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the adjustment cycle is one beat faster than Bitcoin and Ethereum. They are likely to rise first before Bitcoin and Ethereum soar. The first wave of surges may target January to February next year. Therefore, continuous low buying (bottom-fishing) can be done from September to November.
In general, the market in the second half of the year showed a downward spiral of decline and rebound, and investors are advised to wait and see. The LSD sector is the direction of the next wave of market, and new projects have growth potential, but the market value of the top currencies is large. The holdings data of the top venture capital companies show that Ethereum has become the largest holding, and the next wave of performance may exceed expectations. In addition, the trend of mainstream altcoins in the self-selected area is analyzed, and investment advice is provided. Finally, this article provides overall investment advice, and readers are advised to invest prudently according to their own risk preferences and investment capabilities.
