Will Bitcoin continue to fall or start to rise? German government and Mt. Gox sell-offs taper off?
Arguments for Bitcoin to fall further:
1. Bitcoin has reached its four-year cycle target and set a new price record.
2. A "double top" has formed on the chart.
3. Long-term holders are taking profits.
4. Retail investors are panicking and exiting ETFs.
5. Old coins are being moved.
6. Bitcoin is being sold in large quantities by the US and German governments.
7. Mt.Gox will soon return more than 140,000 BTC to former customers.
These events have shaken investors in recent weeks and exacerbated negative sentiment. However, considered individually, the situation is not that dire. For example, the movement of old coins is related to the consolidation of Mt.Gox assets before payouts (the bankruptcy of the exchange occurred in 2014). In addition, profit-taking by long holders in June is still far from the peak in March.