$BTC Market Analysis

Here I analyze based on naked K and order data. If you think it is helpful to you after reading it, follow and like it will be the greatest help to me.

1. My previous analysis is that this wave of decline has not yet reached a bottom. The market response to yesterday’s news from the SEC and Grayscale was not very strong, and yesterday’s news was not sustainable news. After the sentiment cooled down today, the market enthusiasm gradually faded, and it can be felt that the market sentiment is not very following. The CME gap of 27030-27485 last week was filled (Figure 1). If there is no greater and more lasting positive news to stimulate the market in the near future, I can't think of more reasons for the market to continue its upward trend.

2. This wave of rising market sentiment is reversed using fib (Figure 2). We can guess that the next phased low of the $BTC decline is approximately in the 24470-25200 range. The HL position of the previous round of rise is also here. , here is a double stack bit.

3. There is a consensus in the market that the next round of bulls will start after the BTC ETF is approved, so ask yourself two questions

1) How do large institutions complete accumulation and build positions in this extremely illiquid market?

2) Why would the institutions promoting ETF and old money carry out violent pulls if they did not complete the position building at the bottom?

There is only one answer. Get more liquidity through continuous stop-loss and liquidation hunting of derivatives to complete the position opening operation. If we rationalize our analysis on this basis, everything will be better explained. The fact is that it is 3 months The same is true for the dealers in China. The centralized clearing price for shorts is 25,700 (Figure 3), and the recent short liquidation limit is also the 24,470-25,200 range of our second analysis (the third overlapping plus position).

Based on the above analysis, I believe you already have a rough analysis idea in your mind about where to build a position. Don't be blinded by the information that the dealer wants you to see in the short term and become a leek chasing the rise and killing the fall.