In fact, we can try to make a potential reversal of the decline in June. However, we need to wait for the confirmation of the market after the decline caused by the panic in March. If the market recognizes it, the real reversal will come soon. We can pay attention to the potential reversal of the decline in March brought by the potential reversal of the potential reversal in June, so as to continue the general trend of rising since October 23 (70% probability).
In addition, we need to be alert to the fact that the recent news is particularly important and close. The CPI data on Wednesday this week, the Fed's interest rate cut vote in September and the finalization of the US election in November will all have a certain impact on the market. Before that, we should make risk control preparations for psychological expectations in advance, and it is reasonable to reduce short positions.
Regarding the big cake, although the large-scale short-selling force is suppressed, the potential long-selling force can be seen. If the market is a piece of cake now, shorts accounted for 80% and longs accounted for 20% in late June. Now it reflects that shorts account for 60% and longs account for 40%. The weakening of short-selling power is a disguised explanation of the reshuffle of trend traders and contrarian traders, so we tend to believe that the long-short game will have a winner in a short period of time.
Therefore, I am more inclined to move closer to the gradually strengthened bulls, but the real reversal is not yet time, so it is possible to "try" to move north.
From a smaller level, judging from the price trend at the 1-hour level, there are two options, one is oscillation and the other is northward, of which 58000 and 58500 are the verification positions for northward. Go up to 58000 and look at 58500. Only when the entity of 58500 stands firm can the verification of northward be confirmed. Otherwise, there is an 80% probability that 58000 and 55500 will be brushed back and forth at a small level.
