According to historical data, since 2018, the volatility period after the Bitcoin crash generally does not exceed three months, and then it will usher in an increase. For example:

 After the bear market in 2018, it fluctuated for 105 days, rising from US$3,000 to US$14,000.

 After the 312 incident, it fluctuated for 77 days, rising from US$7,000 to US$64,000.

 After the FTX explosion, it fluctuated for one and a half months, rising from US$15,000 to US$30,000.

 In August and September 2023, it fluctuated for two months, rising from US$25,000 to US$70,000.

At present, Bitcoin has fallen from 72,000 points to 54,000 points, and the volatility period has exceeded three months, with a callback of more than 25%. Historically, the retracement of deep washes is generally between 30% and 40%. According to option delivery data, the range of US$50,000-52,000 may be the bottom.

Data support shows that there is little room for bottoming out. Considering the catalysts in the US market, such as ETF launches, monetary policy, and the presidential election, Bitcoin is likely to usher in a new bull market in the second half of 2024-2025.

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