I am an old leek who has experienced 94 312 519 and is still alive

Although I have never landed on the shore, I have been floating in this water (I am still alive)

After two months of continuous decline, I believe many people can't bear this market, because this kind of decline is no less than 312/519 level, and it has never been seen in the historical trend.

Looking back at the trend on March 12, 2020, BTC fell from 9800u to 8500u in one week, and then to 8300u in the second week. It was not until the third week on March 12 that the price accelerated to fall by 55%. BTC fell to 3800 to stop the decline, and quickly rebounded to 6900u in the second week. This time, the total decline from the peak was 61.6%. In the three months since then, the crypto bull market has officially begun.

Trend on May 19, 2021. In the previous week, BTC fell from 59550u to 47500. In the second week, it accelerated to fall by 40% until it stopped at 28000u. From the peak, it fell by 55%. After 2 months of recovery, the encryption started another round of bull market.

Looking at the current market, I believe that it is undoubtedly a hellish difficulty for short-term traders, especially in the current largest contract market in the cryptocurrency circle. It is extremely easy to blow up a position if the funds are not managed well. I don’t know how many heroes have died in this round of decline, including me. I have to reflect on it. Everything is because I have stayed in the "greenhouse" for too long and forgot that I am a "guinea pig", but the experimenter can see it clearly outside the cage!

First, let me talk about my FIL, which I have been holding heavily and losing money on. Since I officially opened a position in FIL on April 1, I will summarize my trading records and my views on the future.

At present, FIL has almost reached the bottom box range of 2.6-4.8 for two years (if you have any questions, please refer to Figure 1)

According to the time when I opened a position in my last post, BTC and ETH were stable at around 66,000/3,600, and when they fell several times, mainstream coins (especially FIL) did not follow the decline.

Until it rebounded from 4.4u to 6.6u, the volume and trend of FIL did not follow the market and was extremely strong. So the next day, the upper lead at 6.6 closed very long, and I decisively added to my position when it fell to 6 (see Figure 2 for details, how I was fooled)

The second hand added positions at 5.8, and the third hand at 5.3. Until then, I think if it is a wash, I will add positions in large quantities.

Until 4.3 a few days ago, I personally judged that it was almost at the bottom. If there is a downward pin of about 20%, and followed by a breakthrough in the effective volume-price structure, and three consecutive rising engulfings of the 3-day K-line (the trend of the three white soldiers), it will be completely reversed.

On July 3, it fell by 7.2%, on July 4 it fell by 7.8%, and yesterday it accelerated to fall by 20% (a standard black crow). From the peak on November 8 to the current correction, it has fallen by 72%, resulting in a large loss for me, and there is no sign of stabilization in the market yet.

It is worth noting that this round is different from the past. BTC has hardly fallen. From the peak of 73777 to 53000, it has also fallen by 28%. There are many factors here, including the acceptance of Wall Street institutions, the approval of spot ETFs, and the relaxation of the attitude of governments towards BTC.

But most of the altcoins have fallen by more than 80% without a lower limit, and the most noteworthy thing is that the market still has no pin and stabilization signal. But according to my current opinion, I will not open contracts randomly for the time being, and warn everyone to control their hands. I will directly build two layers of positions at this spot position. Some sector leaders and new coins are worth bottoming out, especially FIL and AEVO, although you think these two projects are not satisfactory. Secondly, for every 3,000 points that BTC falls, I will add another layer of positions, and the remaining funds will be used on the right side.

Finally, I hope everyone will survive. Only by surviving can we see the dawn. Don’t be used as a “guinea pig” in a “hothouse cage”.