The Fed is holding steady, the dollar is pulling back, liquidity pressure is easing, and risk assets are getting a breather. However, the semiconductor sector is still digesting the previous crowded buy orders, with Nvidia dragging down the Philly Semiconductor Index, weighing on the entire tech stock sentiment. In this environment, the on-chain US stock contract market shows subtle differentiation.
Looking at $NBIS, the pre-market quote is $272.7, with a 24-hour drop of 4.134%, underperforming the semiconductor ETF during the same period. Contract data is even more telling: financing rates have hit zero, open interest remains at 21153.84 contracts, and the 24-hour trading volume exceeds $41 million. With funding rates at zero, this state is trickier than extreme positive or negative rates. It indicates that neither bulls nor bears are willing to pay each other fees, and there's a lack of consensus on directional bets in the market, with leverage funds sitting on the sidelines, akin to the low pressure before a storm. In the last cycle, similar phases with fluctuating interest rate expectations and sector leaders consolidating at high levels often experienced this zero-rate situation, usually lasting two to three days before a direction is chosen.
Why have funds pulled back? Because the Fed's statements didn't provide a clear dovish signal, and the market's expectations for rate cuts this year have been discounted. Although the dollar index has retreated, the 10-year Treasury yield is still hovering at high levels, which has not alleviated the valuation pressure on growth stocks. Semiconductors, being a typical high beta sector, are far more sensitive to liquidity than the broader market. The current beta estimate for $NBIS is around 1.5, and its slight underperformance compared to the sector index is due to this high elasticity at play. The on-chain contract trading volume isn't low, but the OI hasn't increased in tandem, indicating that short-term funds are trading intraday fluctuations, while mid to long-term funds haven't entered. In this structure, a minor macro disturbance could trigger a chain liquidation of leveraged positions.
Cross-asset, BTC is hovering below a key resistance level, while gold has seen a slight uptick due to risk-averse sentiment. This differentiation indicates that the macro narrative is swaying between stagflation and a soft landing, without forming a unified risk appetite. Funds are neither pouring into the stock market nor fleeing; they are all waiting for the next catalyst.
The baseline scenario is sideways oscillation, repeatedly around the $260-$290 range, with the financing rate likely to hover near zero. I would choose to wait and see, waiting for the trading volume to expand and break above the upper range before considering a long position.
The optimistic scenario is a collective rebound in the semiconductor sector, with Tesla or Apple boosting tech sentiment, allowing $NBIS to break above $290.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #NBIS
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