hbm

I'm watching $MU closely into Q4 FY2026 earnings today, Sept 30.

The setup is very different from last year. HBM3E demand for AI accelerators is pushing spot prices 4-5x above contract levels (TrendForce data), and Micron is one of the only 3 suppliers who can deliver at scale.

Why I'm bullish on $MU :

- Data center is now the core story: Nvidia just posted $89B data center revenue (+117% YoY) and AMD's data center also doubled — both need more HBM from Micron.
- Pricing power is back: Reports showing 2026 HBM contracts up ∼20% YoY, which directly supports Micron's push towards 70%+ gross margin.
- Valuation still reasonable vs AI peers despite the run to ∼$180.

Risk is high if guidance disappoints, but the memory upcycle looks intact to me.

Not financial advice. My view on $MU.US

#EarningsSeason #MU #HBM #AIDemand

#EarningsSeason

I’ve been watching the memory market for a while, and this cycle feels different from the usual boom-and-bust story.

Micron is heading into its FY2026 Q4 earnings with expectations around $50B in revenue and gross margins around 86%.

The big question for me is:

How much longer can this memory super cycle actually run?

I think there’s still room for the cycle to continue, mainly because AI infrastructure is creating massive demand for memory, especially HBM.

But I don’t think these growth rates can continue forever.

What I’m watching most closely isn’t just Micron’s Q4 numbers. It’s what management says about the next few quarters.

If AI demand stays strong while memory supply remains tight, the cycle could continue much longer than a typical memory cycle.

But if new capacity starts coming online faster than demand grows, margins could eventually be the first warning sign.

So my view is cautiously bullish on the memory story, but I’m not assuming this is an endless cycle.

The next earnings report should give us another important piece of the puzzle.

What are you watching most closely — HBM demand, gross margins, or FY2027 guidance?

#MU #HBM

#EarningsSeason
$MU
: Bullish or Bearish?

Micron’s FY2026 Q4 earnings on September 30 could be an important test for the current AI-memory cycle. Micron’s own guidance calls for $50B ± $1B revenue, ~86% non-GAAP gross margin, and $31 ± $1 EPS.

🟢 Bullish case:
AI data-center demand and HBM remain major growth drivers. Micron is already shipping HBM4 to a lead customer, while HBM4E volume production is expected in 2027. Analysts currently expect roughly $50.86B revenue and $31.45 EPS, slightly above Micron's guidance midpoint.

🔴 Bearish risks:
The expectations are extremely high. The market will likely focus not only on Q4 numbers but also on FY2027 margin guidance, HBM demand, DRAM pricing and capital spending. A strong report could still disappoint if forward guidance doesn't meet elevated expectations. Options markets currently imply potentially large post-earnings volatility.

My takeaway: The fundamental setup has a strong bullish case, but the earnings reaction will depend heavily on whether Micron can maintain very high margins and demonstrate that the memory super-cycle can continue. The key number isn't just Q4 EPS—FY2027 outlook may matter even more.

#Micron #Semiconductors #HBM #Memory

Educational market discussion, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

🔥 $MU
— BUY THE DIP? | HBM GROWTH WATCH 🚀

Micron Technology is reportedly planning major equipment investments to expand next-gen HBM production capacity, potentially strengthening its position against Samsung and SK Hynix.

📈 Bullish catalyst: Higher HBM capacity could support market-share growth as AI demand continues.

💡 With $MU pulling back, a confirmed support hold could offer a potential long opportunity.

⚠️ Wait for confirmation rather than blindly buying the dip. Manage risk and position size carefully.

DYOR • NFA

#MU #Micron #HBM #Aİ

#sk海力士拟第三季披露股东回报方案
Regarding this news from SK hynix, I feel it’s not just about paying out a bit more in dividends.
After this AI and HBM upcycle strengthens the company’s cash flow, what the market will look at next isn’t merely “how much more it can still earn,” but rather how the money being earned is going to be distributed.
SK hynix is now preparing to announce an additional shareholder return plan in the third quarter, which suggests that the semiconductor cycle may start shifting from a logic based solely on trading performance growth, gradually incorporating shareholder returns and valuation re-rating.
Of course, the premise is that AI demand and the HBM boom don’t drop off noticeably.
If performance stays strong and both buybacks and dividends increase, this round of Korean tech stocks may still have something worth watching.
$SKHYB
#半导体存储 #Aİ I #HBM

The AI chip battle isn’t over yet.

SK hynix has announced a large-scale investment to build the M17 plant.

Once again, the market is asking:

Is AI demand the real boom,
or just the next round of overinvestment?

Why does this matter?

Because SK hynix isn’t an ordinary chip company.

It is one of the world’s key suppliers of HBM (high-bandwidth memory).

So what is HBM?

In simple terms:

The larger the AI model,
the higher the compute power it needs,

and the more powerful the GPU,
the faster memory it requires.

So:

NVIDIA sells GPUs,
and SK hynix sells HBM.

The two companies are essentially tied to the same AI industrial chain.

This massive capacity expansion sends a signal:

Korean semiconductor giants still believe that,

in the coming years, AI compute demand will continue to grow.

But the market also has a question:

If all companies go on a building spree,

will we eventually see:

an oversupply of AI chips?

That’s also the biggest disagreement among investors right now.

My take:

In the short term:

AI hardware could remain volatile.

Because the market has already priced in a large portion of the AI growth expectations.

In the medium to long term:

As long as AI models keep expanding and data centers keep building,

HBM will remain a core beneficiary direction.

Next, the key things to watch are:

1️⃣ Whether NVIDIA orders continue to grow;

2️⃣ Whether HBM prices can stay strong;

3️⃣ Whether data center capex slows down.

One sentence:

The biggest opportunity in AI may not be chatbots,

but the infrastructure that powers AI.

However, the better the story,
the more you have to look at valuation.

#Aİ #HBM #半导体 #sk海力士拟191万亿韩元投建m17工厂

June 16｜If the crypto space only allowed buying BTC, then for AI, I'd only go for storage.

I know a lot of folks disagree.

But if I had to hold just one AI direction long-term,

I'd still choose storage.

The reason is simple.

I like certainty.

Many people investing in AI,

are mostly worried about bubbles.

Worried that models might get replaced.

Worried about shifts in tech direction.

Worried that today's leader could be out of the game tomorrow.

These worries aren't unfounded.

But storage has a unique angle.

AI models are getting larger.

User bases are growing.

The demand for inference is skyrocketing.

All of this will ultimately translate into a demand for storage.

TrendForce predicts that,

the share of HBM in DRAM capacity will rise from 18% in 2025 to about 30% in 2027.

Capital is betting real money on this trend.

GPUs will upgrade.

Models will iterate.

Companies will change.

But data won’t disappear.

The demand for storage will only increase.

It was true in the past internet era.

And it will be the same in the future AI era.

So if you have a high-risk appetite,

you can look into individual stocks.

Like Micron (MU) or SanDisk (SNDK).

If you're more conservative,

buying a storage ETF works too.

At least I haven't seen any AI era yet,

that wouldn't need storage.

That's why we recently focused on SanDisk.

Back then, the stock was around 1600.

Now it's over 2100.

We're not making money from predictions.

But from researching industry trends early on.

Many people are always looking for the next 10x stock.

But I prefer those long-term, high-probability opportunities.

Investment is often not about finding the most thrilling answer.

But about finding the most certain one.

If it’s the crypto space,

I'd pick Bitcoin.

If it’s AI,

I'd choose storage.

In the future, there will be many star companies in AI.

But if I had to pick the most certain direction,

I'd still go for storage.

If you had to choose the most certain direction in AI, would you pick storage, computing power,

or something else?

Buy the moat, ride the bull — buy the moat, hold the long bull.

#AI #BTC☀ #HBM #SNDK