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rebondpostfomc
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TRAP AT 1K — POST-FOMC REBOUND, ILLUSION OR BREAKOUT?TRAP AT 1K — THE POST-FOMC REBOUND IS AN ILLUSION
• BTC 1,318 (+4.07% / 24h, vol ,57B) — ETH 642 (+5.13%, vol ,16B). Fear & Greed 56 (Greed). This is not a structural rally: it’s a reaction to rates staying at 4.00% and a softer-than-expected core CPI at 3.3%, reabsorbing ~50M in liquidations over 48h (BTC 24M / ETH 12M).
• MACRO: FOMC 16/09 = rates maintained, 10Y >5%, VIX -11%, weak dollar. When risky assets rise PARALLEL to the VIX crash, retail buys at the top. ETH/BTC divergence (ETH outperforms +5.3% vs +4.0%), but the ETH ETF flow remains zero — the rally is technical, not fundamental. Support around 4K tested, cost-basis ~1,200.
TRAP AT 1K — POST-FOMC REBOUND, ILLUSION OR BREAKOUT?
TRAP AT 1K — THE POST-FOMC REBOUND IS AN ILLUSION
• BTC 1,318 (+4.07% / 24h, vol ,57B) — ETH 642 (+5.13%, vol ,16B). Fear & Greed 56 (Greed). This is not a structural rally: it’s a reaction to rates staying at 4.00% and a softer-than-expected core CPI at 3.3%, reabsorbing ~50M in liquidations over 48h (BTC 24M / ETH 12M).
• MACRO: FOMC 16/09 = rates maintained, 10Y >5%, VIX -11%, weak dollar. When risky assets rise PARALLEL to the VIX crash, retail buys at the top. ETH/BTC divergence (ETH outperforms +5.3% vs +4.0%), but the ETH ETF flow remains zero — the rally is technical, not fundamental. Support around 4K tested, cost-basis ~1,200.
• BTC 1,318 (+4.07% / 24h, vol ,57B) — ETH 642 (+5.13%, vol ,16B). Fear & Greed 56 (Greed). This is not a structural rally: it’s a reaction to rates staying at 4.00% and a softer-than-expected core CPI at 3.3%, reabsorbing ~50M in liquidations over 48h (BTC 24M / ETH 12M).
• MACRO: FOMC 16/09 = rates maintained, 10Y >5%, VIX -11%, weak dollar. When risky assets rise PARALLEL to the VIX crash, retail buys at the top. ETH/BTC divergence (ETH outperforms +5.3% vs +4.0%), but the ETH ETF flow remains zero — the rally is technical, not fundamental. Support around 4K tested, cost-basis ~1,200.
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